The report analyzes the upcoming 2025 Ivorian presidential election, marked by tension and recurring patterns of political confrontation. It highlights the absence of any peaceful transfer of power since 1995 a situation described as the “Ivorian paradox.” The controversy surrounding President Alassane Ouattara’s fourth-term bid, coupled with the exclusion of key opposition figures, fuels deep resentment and polarization. The report also points to the failure of political elites to establish genuine dialogue on electoral rules, as well as the revival of divisive identity politics related to nationality and “Ivoirité.” Despite steady economic growth, fragile institutions and low public trust increase the risk of instability. The election is therefore described as “high-risk,” with potential for major unrest if the process continues to be viewed as non-inclusive.

Cultural identity, Governance, Election, Political identity, Presidential term limits

In Benin, President Patrice Talon’s choice of Romuald Wadagni as his successor for the April 2026 presidential election is seen as unusual in West Africa, as Talon confirms he will step down after two terms—unlike other African leaders extending their rule (e.g., Ouattara in Côte d’Ivoire, Biya in Cameroon). Yet, the political climate remains tense. The revised electoral code of March 2024 requires presidential candidates to secure endorsements from at least 15% of deputies and mayors, and imposes a unique 20% threshold per constituency to win a parliamentary seat. These provisions place the opposition, particularly the “Les Démocrates” party, in a precarious position. While the reform aims to reduce political fragmentation and foster coalitions, critics denounce it as a strategy to sideline opposition forces. Thus, despite the promise of a rare democratic transition, uncertainty dominates the pre-election environment.

Politics, Governance, Election, Réforme, Presidential term limits

In this podcast, Pape Abdou Ndour discusses the length of presidential terms in Africa, responding to a question about the appropriateness of 4- or 5-year terms. He emphasizes that the issue lies not in the term length itself but in the lack of genuine democratic practices, despite constitutions that proclaim democratic principles. Ndour critiques narratives that blame democracy's failure on its supposedly imported nature, noting that countries like Guinea have only experienced authoritarian regimes since independence. He asserts that principles of accountability and human rights are not exclusively Western. Rather than debating democracy's origins, he advocates focusing on necessary institutional reforms to establish a true democracy tailored to African contexts.

Governance, Election, Presidential term limits, Accountability