Guinea’s economic growth has remained strong, averaging 5.1% between 2019 and 2023, driven mainly by the mining and agricultural sectors. However, this growth has not been sufficiently inclusive to significantly reduce poverty, which still affects 52% of the population. Structural weaknesses — including low domestic revenue mobilization, inefficient public spending, limited human capital, infrastructure gaps, and gender disparities — continue to constrain the broader economic impact. Monetary policy was eased in late 2024 and early 2025 to support growth, while fiscal discipline helped contain deficits over recent years, despite a recent increase due to higher public investment. Public debt has risen, particularly through increased reliance on domestic borrowing. Looking ahead, Guinea’s medium-term outlook is positive, largely due to the expected start of iron ore production at the Simandou project, which could drive double-digit growth. Nevertheless, the report stresses that comprehensive reforms are essential to ensure inclusive, sustainable, and resilient economic development.

Governance, Politique publique, Funding, Inclusion, Economic growth

The article examines Guinea’s recent macroeconomic performance and future outlook, drawing on the African Development Bank’s African Economic Outlook 2024. In 2023, Guinea’s economy demonstrated strong resilience, with GDP growth estimated at 5.7%, driven mainly by agriculture and mining activities, particularly investments related to the Simandou iron ore project. Inflation declined, while public debt and the fiscal deficit remained within ECOWAS convergence criteria. Nevertheless, external vulnerabilities persist, notably a high current account deficit and declining foreign exchange reserves. Economic growth is expected to slow to 4.2% in 2024 due to fuel shortages and reduced electricity supply, before rebounding in 2025 as energy conditions improve. The article emphasizes the importance of structural reforms and global financial architecture reform to mobilize sustainable financing, enhance domestic resource mobilization, attract foreign direct investment, and support Guinea’s transition toward diversified, inclusive, and climate-resilient growth.

Governance, Natural ressources, Inclusion, Economic growth

This Afrobarometer report examines Guinean citizens’ perceptions of gender equality in education, employment, land ownership, and political participation. The findings reveal persistent gender disparities, particularly in access to secondary and post-secondary education and in control over economic assets such as mobile phones, vehicles, and bank accounts. Despite these inequalities, a majority of Guineans oppose the idea that men should be prioritized in hiring when jobs are scarce and support equal rights to land ownership and inheritance. Regarding political participation, 70% of respondents believe women should be eligible for political office on the same basis as men, although many acknowledge social risks, including harassment and family tensions, faced by female candidates. Overall, public dissatisfaction with government performance is high: more than half of respondents rate state efforts to promote gender equality as poor, and 72% believe the government should do more—many calling for significantly stronger action.

Politics, Governance, Gender, Political participation, Equality, Women's rights

In this opinion piece, Seny Diawara examines the political and psychological dynamics between Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko. The article argues that current tensions within the executive stem less from institutional conflict than from contrasting personal trajectories and sources of legitimacy. The President embodies a delegated form of authority still under consolidation, leading him to broaden his political alliances to secure credibility. By contrast, the Prime Minister derives a charismatic legitimacy shaped through struggle, repression, and sustained popular support, relying on a loyal and compact inner circle. These two leadership styles generate divergent interpretations of political decisions, fueling mistrust and symbolic rivalry. In a fragile regional context marked by political transitions and security tensions, the author advocates a “psychopolitical” solution: a tacit but firm pact defining roles, consultation mechanisms, and communication channels, enabling complementarity rather than competition and safeguarding Senegal’s political stability.

Politics, Power, Governance, Transition

The article examines the rise of pro-government NGOs in Nigeria, used by political elites to suppress independent civic voices. Historically resilient, Nigeria’s civil society has come under pressure as the government has become more illiberal, especially since Muhammadu Buhari took office in 2015. Over 360 pro-government NGOs—often unregistered, short-lived, and connected through overlapping patronage networks—have emerged to praise the regime, attack critics, manipulate public narratives, and legitimize authoritarian practices. These groups rely on sycophancy, ad hominem attacks, opaque funding, orchestrated media appearances, and ties with fringe news platforms. Their activities erode democracy by discrediting genuine civil society, undermining accountability, spreading anti-democratic discourse, and reducing the effectiveness of international support. The article also profiles key actors such as Philip Agbese and Bosede Ajibola and outlines policy recommendations to counter the growing influence of this “fake civil society.”

Governance, Medias, Civil Society, Disinformation

The article highlights Guinea-Bissau’s adoption of a blockchain-based platform to improve public payroll management, transparency, and governance. Developed with support from the IMF, Ernst & Young, and financial partners, this digital solution secures payroll and pension data and enables near–real-time tracking of eligibility, budgeting, payment approvals, and salary disbursements. It greatly enhances data integrity and facilitates timely budget reporting for policymakers and the public. Between 2020 and 2024, the payroll-to-revenue ratio fell from 84% to 50%, a notable improvement though still above the WAEMU convergence target of 35%. The project is being expanded across ministries and aims to cover data for more than 34,700 civil servants and retirees. The initiative demonstrates both technological progress and the country’s commitment to strengthening fiscal governance and institutional trust.

Governance, Politique publique, Funding, Transparency

The Freedom in the World 2024 – Guinea-Bissau report by Freedom House highlights persistent political instability. President Umaro Sissoco Embaló’s 2019 electoral victory was internationally recognized, yet tensions between the presidency and parliament have deepened, culminating in the dissolution of the National Assembly in December 2023 and the use of force to block MPs from entering the building. No date for new legislative elections had been set by year-end. Press freedom remains extremely fragile: journalists and media outlets—especially Radio Capital FM—face harassment, intimidation, and violent attacks. Civil society actors and human rights defenders also encounter arbitrary detention and physical assaults. Widespread corruption, weak judicial access, illegal economic activities, gender inequalities, and the trafficking of talibé children for forced begging and labor severely undermine the rule of law. Overall, governance structures remain weak, and fundamental freedoms continue to be compromised in Guinea-Bissau.

Politics, Bribery, Governance, Human Rights, Liberté d'expression, Instabilité

The 2025 national report (submitted under resolutions 5/1 and 16/21 of the United Nations Human Rights Council) provides a comprehensive overview of the human rights situation in Guinea-Bissau. Institutional efforts have been made: a national monitoring mechanism (NMIRF) was established, and laws were adopted to promote freedom of expression, gender parity in politics, and protections against human trafficking. However, progress under the national development plan “Terra Ranka” remains weak due to political instability. Serious violations persist: 123 confirmed human trafficking cases in 2021, restrictions on free speech, social rights abuses, and environmental harm due to illicit construction in protected areas. The report urges strengthening protection mechanisms, ensuring judicial follow-up, improving access to information, and enforcing human rights legislation to safeguard vulnerable populations.

Politics, Governance, Security, Human Rights, Civil Society, Liberté d'expression

The article “A Folkloric Coup d’État in Guinea-Bissau and the Ongoing Turmoil in West Africa” reports on a coup d’état that occurred shortly after the November 23, 2025 presidential election in Guinea-Bissau — a vote conducted with calm but carrying significant hope for the country’s 2.2 million inhabitants. Despite the election, the provisional results were delayed, and a group of military officers close to former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló seized power, forming a military junta called the “High Military Command.” General Denis Ncanha announced the takeover, and General Horta N’Tam was appointed head of a one-year transitional government. The article questions the true nature of the coup — some describe it as a “folkloric coup,” possibly orchestrated by Embaló himself to prevent the victory of another candidate backed by the historic party PAIGC. The author warns of renewed political instability, as seen in other West African states, and the risk of widespread “turmoil” if such maneuvers become common.

Politics, Governance, Security, Coup d'État