This study analyzes Early Warning Systems (EWS) in West Africa and their role in preventing and managing security, social, and climate-related crises. Based on field research conducted in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, and Togo with 120 key stakeholders, it examines the ECOWARN regional network as well as national and community-based mechanisms. The report highlights the importance of multilateral cooperation, rapid information circulation, and coordination between local, national, and regional levels. It also identifies persistent governance challenges, data-sharing constraints, and the diversity of system users. The gradual integration of artificial intelligence into data analysis emerges as a key innovation to enhance anticipation and response capacities. Overall, the interconnection of EWS strengthens regional resilience and reinforces West African multilateralism in the face of complex and evolving risks.

Politics, Political party, Natural ressources, Security, Education, Gold, Human security, Information, Donnée, water

This article analyzes the evolution of Malian civil society within the political transition initiated in 2020. Amid profound institutional reforms, the dissolution of political parties in 2025, and a perceived shrinking of civic space, civil society faces a strategic turning point. The study provides a typological mapping of actors (human rights organizations, youth movements, women’s associations, trade unions, religious organizations, think tanks, and diaspora groups) and examines their contribution to state refoundation reforms. It highlights tensions between collaboration and autonomy, support for transitional authorities and counter-power functions. The article also emphasizes major structural challenges: dependency on external funding, organizational weaknesses, internal fragmentation, and political ambiguities. Despite these constraints, civil society remains a key actor in social cohesion and civic participation. The analysis concludes that its future will depend on its adaptability, financial resilience, and ability to clarify its democratic positioning.

Politics, Political party, State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Education, Gold, Social, Civil Society

This article examines the emergence of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), created in 2023 by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger following a series of military coups. The author situates the AES within the broader trajectory of Sahelian securitization, rooted in counterterrorism strategies implemented since the early 2000s. Drawing on securitization and resilience theories, the study argues that AES regimes promote a form of “maintenance resilience,” aimed at preserving an already securitized political order rather than addressing the structural drivers of insecurity. Despite official narratives emphasizing sovereignty, rupture, and anti-imperialism, the Alliance largely reproduces existing security logics and dependencies, particularly through new external military partnerships. The analysis highlights how the dominance of security-based governance reinforces the suspension of democratic processes and limits prospects for political transformation. Ultimately, the article questions the capacity of the AES to provide a sustainable and inclusive response to the Sahel’s multidimensional crises.

Politics, Political party, State, Governance, Natural ressources, Security, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat

This policy brief examines the consequences of the withdrawal of USAID from migration-related activities in Mauritania in 2025. Although USAID was not the country’s largest donor, its exit weakened several key programmes supporting youth resilience, social cohesion, refugee protection and food security. The sudden suspension of funding led to the interruption of flagship projects such as Nafoore and Tamkeen, with significant impacts on local NGOs, UN agencies and municipalities, particularly in migration hotspots like Hodh El Chargui. The analysis highlights that USAID’s withdrawal occurred alongside strengthened European migration control policies, increasing the risk of human rights violations against migrants. While other donors (European Union, KOICA, Italian cooperation) have partially filled the gap, coordination remains limited and fragmented. The policy brief calls for diversification of funding sources, stronger national institutional capacities, and an integrated migration–development–protection approach to ensure the sustainability of migration governance and support mechanisms in Mauritania.

Economic Development, Migration, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Education, Gold, Human security, Social, Funding

This multisectoral surveillance bulletin examines the humanitarian, agro-pastoral, health, nutrition, and security situation in the regions of Tombouctou and Taoudénni in Mali for October–November 2025. It highlights the continuation of rice harvesting and the completion of rain-fed crops, generally assessed as satisfactory despite input shortages and localized drought-related losses. Rising water levels of the Niger River have improved pastoral resources but temporarily disrupted road infrastructure and reduced fishing production. From a security perspective, reported incidents have declined; however, persistent pressure from armed groups—including access restrictions and zakat collection—has led to significant internal displacement. Food security remains fragile, with projections indicating a sharp increase in populations facing crisis levels of food insecurity in 2026. Nutritional conditions have deteriorated, particularly in Tombouctou, where cases of global acute malnutrition have risen. This situation is exacerbated by infectious diseases, malaria, and low household purchasing power, underscoring the need for strengthened humanitarian and social protection interventions.

Culture, Power, State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Family, Food security, Gold, Malnutrition, water

The article examines ten key trends that shaped Africa’s security landscape in 2025, using graphical and comparative data. It highlights the growing regionalization of conflicts, particularly the fragmentation of Sudan, which has become the world’s largest humanitarian crisis. The Sahel remains the deadliest region for Islamist militant violence, with security conditions worsening significantly in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger following military coups. Political instability is closely linked to democratic backsliding, increasing impunity, and abuses of power. The article also emphasizes intensifying geopolitical competition, notably the expanding security and economic presence of China, Russia, and Gulf states across the continent. Technological changes, especially the widespread use of drones, are transforming the nature of warfare and increasing risks to civilians. Despite these challenges, the article notes partial but meaningful progress toward the African Union’s Agenda 2063, particularly in infrastructure development, regional connectivity, and continental economic integration.

Political party, State, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat

The article examines China’s strategy to dominate Africa’s critical minerals sector, which is vital for defense technologies, energy transition, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence. Through long-term investments, China now controls more than half of global critical mineral production and about 87% of global refining capacity. In Africa, this dominance is built on the acquisition of strategic mines, control of key infrastructure—ports, railways, and energy—through the Belt and Road Initiative, and resource-backed financing agreements. This vertically integrated approach constrains African countries’ ability to move up the value chain and deepens their economic dependence. The article also highlights the environmental, social, and political risks linked to Chinese mining practices, illustrated by major pollution scandals in several African countries. In response, some African governments are pursuing greater mineral sovereignty through export restrictions, regional industrial zones, and local processing policies, aiming to capture more value from their natural resources and reduce structural dependency.

Politics, Political party, State, Sovereignty, Natural ressources, Justice, Gold, Influence, Private sector, Civil Society, Information

The Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin for Niger (October–November 2025) highlights a generally favorable situation for pastoral households at the end of the rainy season. Pasture availability is assessed as good to very good across most monitored areas, supported by above-average vegetation cover. Surface water resources remain largely sufficient for livestock watering, despite localized shortages, notably in Gouré and Tchintabaraden. Livestock body condition is overall satisfactory, reflecting these favorable environmental conditions. From an economic perspective, rising livestock prices combined with a generalized decline in cereal prices have improved livestock-to-cereal terms of trade, benefiting herders in most regions. However, the bulletin also reports a slight deterioration in the security context, characterized by increased livestock theft, intercommunal conflicts, and armed incidents in certain areas. As the transhumance period approaches, these security challenges may heighten tensions around natural resource access and pose risks to pastoral livelihoods.

State, Livestock, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Education, Gold, Human security, Marché, water

The Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin of Senegal – October–November 2025 (No. 43) assesses pastoral conditions at the end of the rainy season and the onset of the cool dry season. It highlights a generally satisfactory availability of pasture and water resources in central, southern and eastern Senegal, contrasted with persistent fodder deficits in the northern regions (Saint-Louis, Louga, Matam). Bush fires, particularly widespread in Matam, Tambacounda and Kaffrine, have negatively affected vegetation regeneration. While the body condition of small ruminants remains largely good, that of large ruminants shows localized deterioration in deficit areas. Market analysis shows rising livestock prices, but persistently high cereal prices, especially rice, have resulted in unfavourable terms of trade for many pastoral households, notably in northern and eastern zones. The bulletin also stresses the limited and uneven support to the pastoral sector, calling for increased vigilance and better-targeted interventions to reduce vulnerabilities.

Power, State, Livestock, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Education, Gold, Human security, water