The article “Democratic decline in West Africa: Characteristics and solutions” by E. Gyimah-Boadi, published by the Kofi Annan Foundation in December 2021, analyzes the decline of democratic standards in West Africa. After notable progress in the 1990s, the region is experiencing a resurgence of authoritarianism, illustrated by attempts to extend presidential terms beyond constitutional limits and an increase in electoral violence. Internal factors include a persistent authoritarian political culture and ethnic divisions, while external factors include an international environment less favorable to democratization. Growing security challenges, such as violent extremism, exacerbate this situation. To reverse this trend, the article recommends strengthening democratic institutions, promoting citizen participation and improving governance to meet the aspirations of the populations.

Governance, Democracy, Election, Human Rights, Violence

The article entitled “What are the causes of the multidimensional crises affecting Mali and Burkina Faso?” », written by Jean-Marc Gravellini and published by the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) on March 2, 2023, analyzes the origins of the complex crises affecting these two countries. The author identifies several contributing factors: Failures of economic policies: The economic strategies implemented have failed to improve the living conditions of populations, worsening poverty and unemployment. Socio-political crises: Growing discontent with the powers that be, perceived as corrupt and ineffective, has led to persistent political instability. Growing insecurity: The rise of armed groups and terrorist activities has worsened the security situation, making it difficult to maintain order and protect citizens. These interconnected elements have led to multidimensional crises, simultaneously affecting the economic, political and security spheres of Mali and Burkina Faso.

Governance, Insécurité, Instabilité

In this interview published by IRIS, Jean-Marc Gravellini analyzes Chad's political and geopolitical situation. He discusses the appointment of Succès Masra, a former opponent of the military regime, as Transitional Prime Minister on January 1, 2024. This appointment is seen as an attempt to include the opposition in the transition process. Gravellini highlights the ongoing challenges Chad faces, including governance, security, and development issues. He also points out Russia's growing influence in the region, as it seeks to strengthen its presence in Central Africa. The article concludes by examining Chad's relations with neighboring countries and the geopolitical implications of these regional dynamics.

Politics, Governance, Transition

In July 2024, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger left the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to form the former Confederation of the Sahel. This decision comes against a backdrop of demographic and climatic crises, as well as insecurity linked to jihadism. Since the 1970s, reduced harvesting has reduced arable land, while the population has quintupled, exacerbating conflicts over resources. Foreign military interventions, deemed ineffective, led to military coups in these countries between 2020 and 2023. The new Junes fueled anti-French sentiment and moved closer to Russia. Faced with ECOWAS sanctions, these states proclaimed the Alliance of Sahel States in September 2023, evolving into the Sahel Confederation in July 2024. This secession exposes them to the challenges of enclavement and the management of vast territories that are difficult to control.

Governance, Coopération régionale

The article titled "African Demography and Migrations: Between Alarmism and Denial", written by Christian Bouquet and published on May 2, 2018, in The Conversation, examines Africa's demographic dynamics and their migratory implications. The author highlights that, despite sometimes questionable statistics, trends indicate a rapid growth of the African population, increasing from 640 million in 1990 to 1.256 billion in 2017. With an average fertility rate of 4.7 children per woman, Africa could reach 2.528 billion inhabitants by 2050 and 4.468 billion by 2100, then representing 40% of the world's population. This demographic growth sparks debates between alarmism and optimism regarding the continent's future. The author calls for a nuanced approach, avoiding both dramatization and denial, to address the challenges and opportunities associated with this evolution.

Governance, Migration, Politique publique, Démographie

In his article titled "La cartographie électorale en Afrique. L’expérience de LAMencartes," published on December 10, 2024, on Géoconfluences, Christian Bouquet, emeritus professor of political geography at the University Bordeaux-Montaigne and Sciences Po Bordeaux, shares the experience of the LAMenCartes workshop, initiated in 2015 by the laboratory Les Afriques dans le Monde (LAM-CNRS). This workshop aims to produce electoral maps for various African countries, despite challenges such as difficulties in accessing reliable data, varying transparency of elections, and technical obstacles related to data collection. Bouquet highlights that, although progress has been made, major obstacles remain, notably due to the reluctance of authorities to provide complete and accurate data. He also emphasizes the importance of electoral cartography in revealing territorial divisions based on ethno-regional lines, while acknowledging the limitations of this exercise in contexts where elections may be marred by fraud.

Politics, Governance, Election

The article titled "Confederation of the Sahel: Risks and Challenges of a New Alliance", written by Christian Bouquet and published on July 15, 2024, in The Conversation, examines the transformation of the Alliance of Sahel States (ASS) — comprising Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — into a confederation of states. This shift follows their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The author highlights the significant economic implications of this decision, notably the end of free trade agreements with other ECOWAS members, thereby restricting the free movement of goods, capital, and people to only ASS countries and members of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). A major challenge identified is the geographical landlocked nature of these countries, lacking direct access to the sea, complicating their exports and imports. Additionally, the monetary issue arises, as these nations still use the CFA franc and remain dependent on UEMOA and the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO). The creation of their own currency is considered, but its implementation appears complex and lengthy.

Governance, Cooperation

Drissa Millogo’s study analyzes the deadlocks in Mali’s peace process, which are linked to poor governance, intercommunal tensions, domestic jihadism, and foreign interference (France, Russia, Gulf monarchies). It calls for a complete rethinking of security approaches, grounded in popular sovereignty, horizontal cooperation, and stronger civil society engagement. Niger is portrayed as a fragile state threatened by jihadist infiltration from Nigeria and the tri-border area; President Issoufou advocates for a firm policy with international backing. Burkina Faso is highlighted for its regional diplomacy under President Compaoré but is also viewed with suspicion due to alleged ties with armed groups. The study promotes inclusive local governance and sincere regional cooperation as essential foundations for peace.

Governance, Peace, Conflict, Crisis management, Jihad, Civil Society, Groupes armés