The article examines the constitutional referendum held in Guinea on September 21, 2025, by Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya’s junta. While presented as a step toward democracy, the process primarily aims to entrench military power. The draft constitution allows junta members to run for elections, extends the presidential term from five to seven years, and grants the executive significant control over Parliament and electoral management. Opposition parties and civil society are sidelined through suspensions, arrests, and enforced disappearances, while media freedoms are heavily curtailed. Despite Afrobarometer surveys showing strong popular support for democracy and civilian rule, the climate of fear, institutional manipulation, and lack of transparency prevent fair contestation. The article stresses that the referendum continues Guinea’s long history of military and authoritarian governance and warns that it could profoundly affect the country’s political and economic stability in the years to come.

Politics, Political party, Power, State, Natural ressources, Political Violence, Democracy, Election, Threat, Transition

The article, published by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies on February 3, 2024, assesses the failure of Mali's promised democratic transition under the military junta that seized power in August 2020. The junta has repeatedly postponed elections and adopted a new constitution that consolidates power in the hands of Colonel Assimi Goïta. Security and economic conditions have worsened, with Islamist violence surging and poverty increasing. The withdrawal from ECOWAS, the G5 Sahel, and MINUSMA has left Mali isolated. Freedoms have shrunk, justice has been obstructed, and Russian mercenaries — implicated in serious human rights abuses — have been brought in. The article argues that the junta has broken its commitments to both citizens and international partners, rendering the concept of a “transition” meaningless.

State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Political Violence, Election, Poverty, Human security, Threat, Politique publique, Transition, Services publics

This article analyzes the ongoing democratic transition in Chad following the death of President Idriss Déby in 2021. While his son, Mahamat Déby, took power by circumventing the Constitution, the international community largely supported this succession, notably France, the European Union, and the United States. Despite peace agreements and a national dialogue, the transition has been marked by electoral reports and violence, such as the repression of the October 2022 protests. The author criticizes the complacency of international partners in the face of this political dynasty and emphasizes the urgent need for increasing diplomatic pressure. The opposition and certain rebel groups remain excluded from the process, making true democratization unlikely.

Politics, State, Natural ressources, Security, Peace, Mediation, Election, Dialogue, Transition