The Africa Center for Strategic Studies article, published on February 21, 2019, analyzes the evolution of Islamist militant groups in the Sahel. Since 2016, violent incidents involving these groups have doubled each year, from 90 in 2016 to 465 in 2018, with a parallel increase in associated deaths, from 218 to 1,110 over the same period. Violence against civilians also increased, accounting for 34% of reported incidents in 2018. Mali remains the epicenter of this violence, accounting for 64% of incidents in 2018. This increase is attributed to increased cooperation between militant groups, particularly within the Jama'at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) coalition, formed in March 2017. Burkina Faso, previously spared, has seen a rapid escalation, with incidents increasing from 3 in 2015 to 137 in 2018. The groups generally operate in specific geographic areas, with JNIM active in central and northern Mali, Ansaroul Islam around Djibo in Burkina Faso, and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) along the Mali-Niger border.

Security, Conflict, Jihad, Violence

The article analyzes the challenges of inclusive dialogue in Mali in a context marked by persistent conflicts. Following the failure of previous peace agreements, the Malian authorities are trying to regain control of the process by initiating a national dialogue without international mediation. However, this approach is addressed for its lack of inclusiveness, in particular the absence of dialogue with the main actors of the violence, including terrorist groups such as the GSIM. Previous agreements, mediated by international actors, have failed due to a lack of will on the part of the parties. Challenges therefore include the absence of key actors, the military predominance in pacification strategies and the withdrawal of groups such as the CMA, thus complicating the effectiveness of this dialogue.

Peace, Conflict, Crisis management, Terrorism, Dialogue

The article analyzes the security challenges facing coastal countries in the face of the terrorist threat, drawing lessons from the strategic mistakes of the Sahelian states. They favored a belated military approach, underestimating the transnational and hybrid nature of terrorism. The weakness of security governance, the outbreak of community conflicts and the use of self-defense groups have aggravated the situation. Terrorist groups exploit porous borders better than states. Burkina Faso is a strategic lock whose weakening increases the pressure on coastal countries such as Benin, Togo and Ghana. For these states, it is imperative to strengthen regional cooperation and adopt inclusive strategies to avoid the same pitfalls.

Security, Terrorism

In the March 2, 2023 article, Dr. Bakary Sambe, Regional Director of the Timbuktu Institute, examines how jihadist groups in the Sahel have transformed into networked community-based actors expanding into the Gulf of Guinea . AQMI and its katibas—Macina, Serma, Alidougou—now operate through decentralized, locally rooted structures while remaining coordinated by JNIM. They exploit local dynamics—family ties, pastoral tensions, weak state presence—to establish footholds in Benin, Togo, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire. Sambe warns against relying solely on military strategies and calls for a paradigm shift that recognizes the jihadists’ community entrenchment. He advocates a mixed approach combining security measures, regional cooperation, and local dialogue to counter extremist embedding and prevent its spread into coastal regions.

Security, Conflict, Jihad, Violence

The article "Beyond Criminality: Youth Perceptions of Radicalization and Violent Extremism in Northern Benin" examines how young people perceive radicalization and violent extremism in this region. It highlights the socio-economic and cultural factors that make youth vulnerable to these phenomena, such as unemployment, poverty, social exclusion, and lack of educational opportunities. The study also emphasizes the role of community and family dynamics in either preventing or facilitating radicalization. Young people often view violent extremism not only as a solution to their economic frustrations but also as a means to gain a sense of belonging and recognition. The article calls for a holistic approach, involving local communities, educational institutions, and government authorities, to develop effective prevention strategies. It stresses the need to strengthen civic education initiatives, promote interfaith dialogue, and create economic opportunities for youth to reduce their vulnerability to radicalization.

Security, Jihad, Violence

The report “Dogmatism or Pragmatism? Violent Extremism and Gender in the Central Sahel” examines the influence of gender roles on the engagement of men and women in violent extremism in the Central Sahel. It highlights that violent extremist groups impose strict norms on women, seeking to control their behavior according to jihadist ideology. Contrary to the received idea of ​​women as passive victims, the report reveals that some actively support these groups, finding in the application of Sharia law and jihadist governance a resonance with their aspirations. Based on empirical data collected in late 2019 in the Liptako-Gourma region, the document offers an in-depth analysis of gender dynamics in the context of violent extremism in the Sahel.

Gender, Security, Jihad, Extremism, Women, Violence

A preliminary study conducted by the Timbuktu Institute, in partnership with the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom, examines the role of women in preventing and combating violent extremism in Mali. Carried out in Bamako during November and December 2016, this research highlights that women are both major victims and potential key actors in this context. They suffer from abuses such as forced marriages, rapes, and abductions, while being at the forefront of detecting signs of radicalization within their families and communities. However, their involvement in conflict prevention and resolution processes remains limited. The study identifies socioeconomic factors (poverty, unemployment, illiteracy) and religious influences as drivers of radicalization. It recommends expanding research to other regions of Mali, strengthening the capacities of state and civil society actors, and increasing the involvement of religious leaders and women in promoting peace and combating violent extremism.

Peace, Conflict, Jihad, Extremism, Women, Violence

The International Crisis Group's article "Cameroon: Confronting Boko Haram" analyses the impact of the Boko Haram insurgency in the Far North region of Cameroon. It highlights the vulnerability of this region due to weak socio-economic indicators and a limited state presence, facilitating the establishment of the terrorist group. Boko Haram has exploited these weaknesses to recruit locally and finance its activities through kidnappings, cattle rustling and illegal trade. The consequences are multiple: political destabilisation, increased insecurity, local economic collapse and social tensions. The article criticises the mainly security-based response of the Cameroonian government, deemed insufficient without a socio-economic development strategy. It recommends an integrated approach combining reinforced security, development initiatives and regional cooperation to eradicate the Boko Haram threat and sustainably stabilise the Far North of Cameroon.

Governance, Security, Jihad

West Africa is facing an increasing threat of destabilization due to the expansion of jihadist groups and the geopolitical influence of foreign powers, notably Russia. Recent attacks, such as the one in Togo in July 2024 by the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM), affiliated with Al-Qaeda, highlight the extent of the terrorist threat in the region. Simultaneously, Russia is expanding its influence in Africa, capitalizing on the withdrawal or inaction of Western powers. This strategy is evident through alliances with military regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, which have recently formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a pro-Russian coalition. This situation weakens the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), already shaken by the intentions of some members to withdraw. In response to these challenges, West African authorities are seeking solutions to maintain regional stability and counter foreign interference.

Governance, Jihad, Influence, Violence, Threat