In this article published in March 2025 by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, Joseph Siegle analyzes the regional and political drivers of Sudan’s ongoing conflict. He discusses the U.S. designation of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) as perpetrators of genocide in Darfur, where civilians—mainly from the Masalit ethnic group—have suffered large-scale atrocities. The conflict, a power struggle between RSF and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), has attracted competing regional sponsors: the United Arab Emirates back RSF, while Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and others support SAF. Siegle warns of the danger of a prolonged proxy war and emphasizes the need for Sudanese civilians to be central in any negotiated settlement. He calls for all regional actors to reassess their strategic interests to prevent further fragmentation and ensure a viable political resolution.

Politics, Political party, Power, State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Conflict, Gold, Threat

Matthew La Lime’s article, published by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in November 2024, explores the rise of Black Axe, Nigeria’s most notorious transnational criminal organization. Originally a student fraternity, Black Axe has evolved into a global criminal enterprise operating in over 30 countries. Its billions in annual revenue come from cybercrime, money laundering, drug trafficking, and sex work. In Nigeria, Black Axe exerts influence over politics through patrimonial networks, protected by elites who hinder legal prosecution. While international operations like INTERPOL’s Jackal III have made arrests, domestic efforts are largely ineffective due to political interference. The article recommends legal reforms, grassroots mobilization, and enhanced international cooperation to dismantle Black Axe’s power structure and financial flows.

Politics, Political party, Power, State, Natural ressources, Political Violence, Gold, Violence, Threat, Illegal activity

The study "Food Insecurity in the Central Sahel", coordinated by Pierre Janin, assesses public policies and crisis management systems in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger since 2004. It embraces a critical and context-sensitive approach, moving beyond simplistic causal explanations to address the multifaceted nature of food crises, shaped by climatic, economic, political, and security factors. The study reviews four major crises (2004–2005, 2007–2008, 2011–2012, 2020–2022) in each country, evaluating the relevance and evolution of institutional responses. It advocates for a shift from technical risk management to strategic governance, emphasizing negotiated compromises and adaptive responses. The growing politicization of food-related challenges—exemplified by the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—reshapes regional sovereignty dynamics and calls for innovative policy frameworks.

Politics, Political party, Natural ressources, Security, Food security, Gold, Human security, Crisis, Insécurité, Food insecurity

The article by Joseph Siegle and Hany Wahila, published by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, explores the democratic implications of Africa’s 2025 elections. In a context of declining democratic norms, ten elections are scheduled across West and Central Africa, many of which are expected to be heavily orchestrated. The authors highlight how incumbent regimes manipulate electoral institutions to retain power. The article stresses the importance of distinguishing genuinely competitive elections from staged ones. Independent observers, media, and civil society play a critical role in defending electoral integrity. These elections will serve as a major credibility test for democracy in Africa.

Politics, Political party, Power, State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Election, Gold, Human security

This report explores the rise, evolution, and fragmentation of armed extremist groups in the Sahel—AQIM, MUJAO, JNIM, and ISGS. It outlines the root causes of their proliferation: weak state presence, social marginalization, environmental pressures, geopolitical interference, and security vacuums. The analysis reveals how these groups adapt strategically, build local ties, and exploit state fragility. The fall of Libya, successive coups, and the withdrawal of international actors (France, the UN) have reshaped the security environment. The report advocates a multidimensional response: inclusive governance, socio-economic investment, stronger regional cooperation, and engagement of traditional leaders. It highlights the growing threat of violence spilling over into West African coastal states and calls for locally rooted, tailored strategies to achieve sustainable peace and resilience in the region.

Politics, Political party, Natural ressources, Security, Jihad, Terrorism, Political Violence, Gold, Violence, Threat

In 2024, violence by Islamist militant groups in Africa caused an estimated 18,900 deaths, with the Sahel, Somalia, and the Lake Chad Basin most affected. The Sahel alone accounted for 55% of the total fatalities, notably in Burkina Faso, which has become the epicenter of insurgent activity. The JNIM coalition (linked to AQIM) is responsible for the majority of attacks. Alarmingly, more civilians were killed by Sahelian security forces and their Russian allies than by militants. Violence is rising in Niger, Togo, and Benin, while Somalia, despite a decrease in deaths, remains impacted by Al Shabaab and the Islamic State. Mozambique and North Africa have also seen renewed increases. The report warns that actual figures may be underreported due to media repression. The data illustrates the persistence and adaptability of militant operations across the continent.

Political party, State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat

This Policy Brief explores Senegal’s role in mediating the crisis between ECOWAS and the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), formed by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger after their withdrawal from ECOWAS. Drawing on its diplomatic tradition and neutrality, Senegal, under President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, has been appointed as a facilitator. While Senegal officially promotes the AES’s return to ECOWAS, its emissary's statements suggest a more nuanced stance. The brief analyzes issues of regional integration, governance, security cooperation, and sovereignty. It highlights the need for realistic mediation, one that acknowledges the AES states’ security concerns while preserving ECOWAS’s democratic and economic frameworks. The document also emphasizes the regional consequences of the split, including economic fragmentation and weakened security cooperation, urging Senegal to play a strategic and balanced role.

Politics, Political party, Power, State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Conflict, Gold, Human security, Diplomacy, Crisis

This report documents the sharp rise in disinformation campaigns across Africa—from 50 in 2022 to 189 in 2024—with nearly 60% sponsored by foreign state actors, chiefly Russia, China, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. West Africa is the most targeted region, with 72 campaigns, particularly in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. These campaigns aim to shape political narratives, undermine democracy, support military coups, and discredit international institutions. Russia-linked networks, including Wagner, have been central in the Sahel. The report also highlights increasing domestic disinformation, notably during Kenya’s 2022 and Nigeria’s 2023 elections, as well as growing involvement of Islamist militant groups. Disinformation is spreading rapidly due to social media use and declining press freedom, posing a significant threat to stability, civil rights, and democratic governance across the continent.

Politics, Political party, State, Natural ressources, Education, Gold, Social, Influence, Infowar, Information

This Policy Brief from the Gorée Institute examines the root causes of state fragility in the Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) and outlines practical strategies for rebuilding resilient institutions. It highlights the dominance of the executive branch, institutional weaknesses, lack of political legitimacy, social inequalities, climate change, and insecurity as core drivers of collapse. The brief proposes a comprehensive reform agenda focused on democratic governance (institutional balance, judicial independence) and good governance (decentralization, transparency, and poverty reduction). It emphasizes the need for an integrated approach combining institutional reform, inclusive development, regional cooperation, and citizen engagement to restore state legitimacy and stability in the Sahel.

Politics, Political party, Power, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Gold, Human security, Social, Institution