This article by Tin Kapetanovic examines the expansion of Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) across the Sahara-Sahel through the criminological concept of “transplantation.” It argues that JNIM’s relocation was shaped by both push and pull factors. Push factors included military pressure in northern Mali after France’s Operation Serval (2013) and competition with rival groups such as the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara. Pull factors encompassed weak state authority, ethnic tensions (notably between Fulani herders and Dogon farmers), economic opportunities from artisanal gold mining and smuggling routes, and Mopti’s strategic location. JNIM embedded itself locally by integrating traditional leaders, intermarrying, providing security and services, and establishing Sharia-based governance. Nonetheless, its expansion faced resistance from community self-defense militias and heightened counterterrorism operations by Malian and international forces. Applying the transplantation framework highlights JNIM’s deliberate organizational adaptation and environmental exploitation, offering insights beyond ideology or networks

Governance, Security, Terrorism, Extremism

This article examines the use of artificial intelligence techniques to predict interstate armed conflicts in West Africa. Using a comprehensive dataset spanning 1981–2018 and covering 16 countries in the region, the authors tested three machine learning models: random forest, logistic regression, and decision tree. Findings indicate that the random forest model performs best (98% accuracy, 83% recall). The most relevant predictors of conflict are differences in democracy levels and shared borders, while military expenditures prove less influential. The study highlights elevated risks for certain dyads, such as Guinea–Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast–Burkina Faso. By demonstrating the effectiveness of predictive models, this research contributes to the development of early warning systems for conflict prevention. However, it also stresses the limitations due to data imbalance and the need for continuous updates to enhance forecasting accuracy.

State, Security, Peace, Conflict, Political Violence, Education, Threat, Soicial sciences, Researh, Knowlege production, Intelligence artificielle

This report examines the evolution of Islamic donors in the Sahel, from their historical roots to their recent strategic shifts. Initially framed by South-South solidarity and the oil shocks of the 1970s, Gulf donors gradually expanded their influence through religious and private aid, notably via Islamic NGOs and non-profit organizations. The study highlights the privatization of aid, the emergence of a “Muslim humanitarianism,” and the growing role of Salafist NGOs in social work, especially in Senegal. These actors, perceived as close to communities, provide assistance considered accessible and effective, while challenging traditional Western cooperation models. Their strategies include delegitimizing classical partners and reshaping local socio-political dynamics. The report concludes that international agencies must adapt, build partnerships with legitimate Islamic actors, and integrate local cultural and religious contexts to enhance peacebuilding and sustainable development in the region.

Politics, Political party, State, Economic Development, Natural ressources, Donor, Gold, Social, Aid, Civil Society

The Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin for Senegal (No. 41, June–July 2025) highlights late and irregular rains, causing a severe pastoral lean season in the north (Louga, Saint-Louis, Matam). Transhumance flows were intense, with herds moving southward (Kaolack, Kaffrine, Tambacounda) and across borders with Mauritania and Mali. While forage and water resources were more favorable in Casamance and eastern Senegal, overgrazing and pressure on water points increased health risks and tensions. Livestock prices, especially for male cattle (+12%), rose sharply, improving terms of trade for pastoralists but undermining non-herding households’ purchasing power. The bulletin also reports animal diseases, frequent cattle thefts (Louga, Kaffrine, Tambacounda), and localized farmer–herder conflicts. Recommendations emphasize strengthening pastoral infrastructure, ensuring coordinated management of transhumance corridors, reinforcing animal health surveillance, and providing targeted support to vulnerable households.

State, Livestock, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Education, Food security, Gold, Poverty, Human security, Vulnerability, Transhumance

The article “Future research directions for climate-sensitive social protection” examines the current limitations of social protection systems in addressing climate change impacts, with a focus on the Sahel. While vital for crisis mitigation, such programs face challenges of low coverage, weak integration of climate data, and limited resources. Based on a global review and a regional case study in the Sahel (notably Mauritania and Senegal), the paper argues that scaling up and adapting existing programs may be more effective than creating new ones. Two key research priorities are highlighted: improving climate risk assessments to better inform program design, and developing “dynamic social registries” that combine socio-economic and environmental data for targeted responses. The authors stress the need for longitudinal studies, systematic evaluations, and pragmatic approaches that link social protection, climate adaptation, and community resilience.

Climate change, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Education, Human security, Soicial sciences, Researh, Knowlege production, Protection

This Policy Brief examines the G5 Sahel (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger), which faces a “polycrisis” of institutional fragility, violent conflict, and climate change. Although the region contributes only 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, it is warming faster than the global average, worsening poverty, food insecurity, and competition over scarce resources. Rapid population growth and unplanned urbanization deepen social strains. Conflicts over land and water, combined with weak governance, fuel instability and large-scale displacement. The author highlights the need for sustained, multi-pronged action: strengthening local resilience, involving communities and indigenous groups, improving governance, and ensuring access to climate finance. The Sahel’s future hinges on coordinated approaches that balance development, peacebuilding, and climate adaptation

Migration, Climate change, Peace, Conflict, Crisis, Insécurité, Démographie, Inclusion

In June 2025, Action Against Hunger (ACF) released a monitoring bulletin on micro-enterprises in Bassikounou, Mauritania, as part of its economic resilience program. The study assessed 50 ACF-supported micro-enterprises, mainly operating in retail trade, catering, and services. Findings indicate an average 18% increase in turnover since the previous assessment, despite ongoing challenges such as supply chain issues, rising prices, and limited product diversification. Most beneficiaries are women (72%), who report improved income and autonomy. However, reliance on local markets and low savings capacity continue to hinder the sustainability of these businesses. The report recommends strengthening management training, diversifying business sectors, and improving access to credit.

Economic Development, Natural ressources, Security, Education, Development, Gold, Aid, Private sector, Civil Society, Funding

The Bi-monthly Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin for the Sahel (No. 32, April–May 2025) reports a lean season marked by a sharp decline in forage resources and the drying up of temporary surface water. Livestock movements are generally limited but include mass departures or arrivals, often driven by insecurity. Localized resource availability leads to high livestock concentrations, deterioration in animal body condition, and suspected disease outbreaks (botulism, peste des petits ruminants, vitamin deficiencies). Cereal and livestock prices are rising, with terms of trade unfavorable to herders. Cattle theft remains an issue, especially in high-density zones and in the Gao region. Conditions vary by country, with pastoral resources sometimes sufficient (Mauritania, Côte d’Ivoire) but often deficient (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Senegal), creating both economic and animal health challenges.

State, Pastoralism, Livestock, Natural ressources, Security, Education, Gold, Human security, Information, Insécurité