In “Security Collapse in Mali and Burkina Faso: What Could Happen?”, published by the Institut Montaigne on January 11, 2023, Jonathan Guiffard, a defense and Africa expert, offers a prospective analysis from the viewpoint of AQMI/JNIM jihadists regarding the Sahel crisis . He frames the escalation in insecurity following the departure of French forces (August 2022), recent coups, and the vacuum left by Barkhane and and MINUSMA. Guiffard outlines scenarios including expanded jihadist-controlled zones, increased radicalization, and rising attacks, with potential spillover into West Africa. The goal is to anticipate militant strategies to better inform policymakers. He urges a reevaluation of stabilization tactics, incorporating the jihadist interpretation of Western withdrawal.

Security, Jihad, Terrorism

In the interview “War on Jihadism: Mali and Burkina Faso Facing an Uncertain Future”, published on December 21, 2022, in Areion24 and featured in Les grands dossiers de Diplomatie (No. 71), Adib Bencherif, a political science professor and LIRIC director, outlines the "delicate" security situation in Mali and Burkina Faso. He chronicles ongoing clashes between jihadists (notably JNIM) and Malian forces supported by Wagner, highlighting abuses against Peul communities that fuel distrust in the State . Bencherif asserts there is little short-term hope, though there's slightly more optimism in Burkina, where the junta is seen as more pragmatic . This analysis warns of the states' limited capacity to halt jihadist expansion and calls for a reconsideration of security, political, and social responses.

Jihad, Terrorism, Counter terrorism

The report “Self‑defence groups, politics and the Sahelian State”, published by the Clingendael Institute in December 2022 and written by Kars de Bruijne, examines the proliferation of self-defence militias in the Sahel, focusing on the Volunteers for the Defence of the Homeland (VDP) in Burkina Faso and Amotekun in Nigeria. Initially formed to fill security gaps, these groups have been institutionalized by the state, leading to serious risks: ethnic bias, impunity, criminal behaviour (extortion, abductions), and arms proliferation. While they may provide local protection, their formal inclusion weakens state legitimacy and can perpetuate cycles of violence. The report recommends inclusive recruitment, clear legal frameworks, judicial oversight, civilian control, and structured demobilization.

Politics, State, Military activity