The World Bank’s June 2022 report on the G5 Sahel (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger) highlights that these economically fragile countries face challenges such as political instability, growing insecurity, uncontrolled urbanization, declining agricultural productivity, and a food crisis affecting millions of people. Climate change is exacerbating these vulnerabilities, increasing migration and social exclusion. However, the region has untapped assets, including a growing young population and renewable energy resources. Smart climate investments and strengthening policies and institutions could improve resilience to the impacts of climate change and avoid carbon-intensive growth. A stronger state presence is crucial to improve the quality of services, especially in the post-COVID context and in the face of supply chain disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. A green and resilient Sahel requires accumulated commitment from states at all levels

Governance, Agriculture, Food security, Urbanisation, Crisis, Insécurité

The article "Mauritania: A Security Exception in the Sahelian Landscape" examines Mauritania's stability amidst growing insecurity in the Sahel. Since 2011, the country has not experienced any terrorist attacks, in contrast to its neighbors. This situation results from a multidimensional strategy, notably the judicious use of the religious factor. Mauritania enjoys a reputation for piety recognized in the Muslim world, which has prevented the state from being easily labeled as "takfir" by armed groups, thus legitimizing violence against it. This reputation has also served as a basis for internal religious dialogue, often cited as an example in the region, including a prison component to combat jihadism. Between 2009 and 2013, measures of social strictness, such as the closure of bars and the Israeli embassy, have reinforced this approach. The article also mentions the "pact thesis," suggesting that Mauritania is spared in exchange for discreet financial support, although this theory remains debated. Finally, Islam is presented as an essential vector of national cohesion, mitigating community tensions and persistent social inequalities.

Security, Jihad, Social cohesion

The World Bank Group’s Sahel Education White Paper (December 2021) highlights the central role of education for the region’s economic and human development. Each year of education increases incomes by 7% to 15%, while gender inequality and early marriage are particularly acute. Although primary school enrollment doubled and secondary school enrollment tripled between 2005 and 2018, challenges remain: low quality of education, high population growth, and high dropout rates. More than 40% of school-age children are not in school. Improving the quality and access to education is essential to sustainably lift people out of poverty.

Inequality, Gender, Education, Poverty, Démographie

WATHI’s article highlights the growing risks of the Sahel becoming a proxy war theatre, where foreign powers clash to defend their strategic interests. In a context of multiple crises – insecurity, poverty and political instability – the region attracts international actors with divergent agendas, including Russia, China, the United States and the European Union. These interventions, often disguised as aid or partnerships, exacerbate local tensions and divisions between Sahelian countries. Geopolitical rivalries risk aggravating regional fragility and diverting attention from the real challenges: economic development, governance and sustainable security. The article calls for concerted action by Sahelian states to preserve their sovereignty and avoid the instrumentalization of their territories. It also advocates strengthened regional cooperation and balanced partnerships to build lasting peace and respond to human needs.

Sovereignty, Governance, Security, Conflict, Poverty, Crisis

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) paper published in June 2024 analyses the resurgence of unconstitutional changes of government (UCGs) in West Africa since 2020, particularly in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger. It highlights that these successive coups reveal structural weaknesses and complex socio-political challenges specific to each country, requiring a specific approach rather than a uniform vision of a “contagion” of coups. The paper criticises ECOWAS’s response, deemed ineffective, and calls for a reassessment of strategies for managing military transitions. It also recommends that international partners engage constructively without legitimising coups and emphasises the strengthening of regional instruments to respond to violations of democratic governance by elected governments.

Governance, Democracy, Transition, Coup d'État

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies article, published on February 21, 2019, analyzes the evolution of Islamist militant groups in the Sahel. Since 2016, violent incidents involving these groups have doubled each year, from 90 in 2016 to 465 in 2018, with a parallel increase in associated deaths, from 218 to 1,110 over the same period. Violence against civilians also increased, accounting for 34% of reported incidents in 2018. Mali remains the epicenter of this violence, accounting for 64% of incidents in 2018. This increase is attributed to increased cooperation between militant groups, particularly within the Jama'at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) coalition, formed in March 2017. Burkina Faso, previously spared, has seen a rapid escalation, with incidents increasing from 3 in 2015 to 137 in 2018. The groups generally operate in specific geographic areas, with JNIM active in central and northern Mali, Ansaroul Islam around Djibo in Burkina Faso, and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) along the Mali-Niger border.

Security, Conflict, Jihad, Violence

The article criticizes the insistence of international actors on the rapid holding of elections in Mali, which leads to a “fetishization” of democratic forms without addressing the country’s structural problems. After the 2021 coup, the Assises nationales de la refondation attempted to identify solutions to multiple crises, but external pressures on obscure efforts. ECOWAS, by imposing sanctions and focusing on an electoral calendar, ignores the essential reforms necessary for Malian governance. The article warns of the risk of a lasting authoritarian drift and calls for innovative and adapted solutions emanating from Malians.

Governance, Election, Coup d'État