Issue 34 of the Sahel Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin highlights an overall improvement in pastoral conditions across the region during August–September 2025. Pasture and water availability is generally satisfactory, contributing to good livestock body condition. However, significant spatial disparities remain, with some areas experiencing low vegetation cover while others face excess water and flooding risks. Livestock markets are mostly accessible, yet rising animal prices combined with fluctuating cereal prices continue to negatively affect terms of trade for pastoralists in several locations. From a health perspective, outbreaks of animal and human diseases have been reported, requiring increased monitoring. Security conditions remain fragile in parts of the region, marked by recurrent livestock theft and increased pressure on pastoral resources due to the presence of displaced and refugee populations.

State, Livestock, Natural ressources, Security, Education, Human security, Health, Information, Marché, water

In this opinion piece, Seny Diawara examines the political and psychological dynamics between Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko. The article argues that current tensions within the executive stem less from institutional conflict than from contrasting personal trajectories and sources of legitimacy. The President embodies a delegated form of authority still under consolidation, leading him to broaden his political alliances to secure credibility. By contrast, the Prime Minister derives a charismatic legitimacy shaped through struggle, repression, and sustained popular support, relying on a loyal and compact inner circle. These two leadership styles generate divergent interpretations of political decisions, fueling mistrust and symbolic rivalry. In a fragile regional context marked by political transitions and security tensions, the author advocates a “psychopolitical” solution: a tacit but firm pact defining roles, consultation mechanisms, and communication channels, enabling complementarity rather than competition and safeguarding Senegal’s political stability.

Politics, Power, Governance, Transition

The article highlights Guinea-Bissau’s adoption of a blockchain-based platform to improve public payroll management, transparency, and governance. Developed with support from the IMF, Ernst & Young, and financial partners, this digital solution secures payroll and pension data and enables near–real-time tracking of eligibility, budgeting, payment approvals, and salary disbursements. It greatly enhances data integrity and facilitates timely budget reporting for policymakers and the public. Between 2020 and 2024, the payroll-to-revenue ratio fell from 84% to 50%, a notable improvement though still above the WAEMU convergence target of 35%. The project is being expanded across ministries and aims to cover data for more than 34,700 civil servants and retirees. The initiative demonstrates both technological progress and the country’s commitment to strengthening fiscal governance and institutional trust.

Governance, Politique publique, Funding, Transparency

The article examines the rise of pro-government NGOs in Nigeria, used by political elites to suppress independent civic voices. Historically resilient, Nigeria’s civil society has come under pressure as the government has become more illiberal, especially since Muhammadu Buhari took office in 2015. Over 360 pro-government NGOs—often unregistered, short-lived, and connected through overlapping patronage networks—have emerged to praise the regime, attack critics, manipulate public narratives, and legitimize authoritarian practices. These groups rely on sycophancy, ad hominem attacks, opaque funding, orchestrated media appearances, and ties with fringe news platforms. Their activities erode democracy by discrediting genuine civil society, undermining accountability, spreading anti-democratic discourse, and reducing the effectiveness of international support. The article also profiles key actors such as Philip Agbese and Bosede Ajibola and outlines policy recommendations to counter the growing influence of this “fake civil society.”

Governance, Medias, Civil Society, Disinformation

The report demonstrates a sharp deterioration of Mali’s security situation since the military junta seized power in 2020. Violence by militant Islamist groups has surged and now covers every region, including areas close to Bamako. Maps throughout the report (pp. 1–4) show the rapid geographic expansion of attacks. In 2023, Mali is on track to exceed 1,000 violent events, nearly triple the level recorded when the junta took power. Focused on consolidating its rule, the junta alienated regional and international security partners and demanded the withdrawal of the 15,000-strong UN mission (MINUSMA), pushing northern Mali to the brink of renewed civil war. The arrival of Russia-linked Wagner forces has worsened abuses, with more than 320 human rights violations documented. In the center and south, FLM, JNIM, and ISGS have strengthened their operations. State authority is collapsing as civilians face escalating attacks, instability, and governance breakdown.

Political party, State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Political Violence, Human security, Violence, Threat

The article “A Folkloric Coup d’État in Guinea-Bissau and the Ongoing Turmoil in West Africa” reports on a coup d’état that occurred shortly after the November 23, 2025 presidential election in Guinea-Bissau — a vote conducted with calm but carrying significant hope for the country’s 2.2 million inhabitants. Despite the election, the provisional results were delayed, and a group of military officers close to former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló seized power, forming a military junta called the “High Military Command.” General Denis Ncanha announced the takeover, and General Horta N’Tam was appointed head of a one-year transitional government. The article questions the true nature of the coup — some describe it as a “folkloric coup,” possibly orchestrated by Embaló himself to prevent the victory of another candidate backed by the historic party PAIGC. The author warns of renewed political instability, as seen in other West African states, and the risk of widespread “turmoil” if such maneuvers become common.

Politics, Governance, Security, Coup d'État

The 2025 national report (submitted under resolutions 5/1 and 16/21 of the United Nations Human Rights Council) provides a comprehensive overview of the human rights situation in Guinea-Bissau. Institutional efforts have been made: a national monitoring mechanism (NMIRF) was established, and laws were adopted to promote freedom of expression, gender parity in politics, and protections against human trafficking. However, progress under the national development plan “Terra Ranka” remains weak due to political instability. Serious violations persist: 123 confirmed human trafficking cases in 2021, restrictions on free speech, social rights abuses, and environmental harm due to illicit construction in protected areas. The report urges strengthening protection mechanisms, ensuring judicial follow-up, improving access to information, and enforcing human rights legislation to safeguard vulnerable populations.

Politics, Governance, Security, Human Rights, Civil Society, Liberté d'expression

The article examines why Senegal’s democracy endured despite a major institutional crisis surrounding the postponement of the 2024 presidential election. When President Macky Sall cancelled the February vote, citing institutional conflict, civil society, opposition actors, and the Constitutional Council played decisive roles in protecting the rule of law. Despite political pressure, the judiciary invalidated the postponement, demonstrating its independence. At the same time, broad civic mobilization—including activists, scholars, journalists, and religious groups—demanded adherence to the constitutional electoral timeline. This combination of judicial firmness and collective citizen action enabled the organization of the March 24 election and a peaceful transition to President Bassirou Diomaye Faye. The article argues that Senegal’s resilience stems from a long-standing tradition of civic engagement, institutional dialogue, and public defense of democratic checks and balances.

Politics, Political party, Power, State, Natural ressources, Justice, Election, Social, Medias

The Freedom in the World 2024 – Guinea-Bissau report by Freedom House highlights persistent political instability. President Umaro Sissoco Embaló’s 2019 electoral victory was internationally recognized, yet tensions between the presidency and parliament have deepened, culminating in the dissolution of the National Assembly in December 2023 and the use of force to block MPs from entering the building. No date for new legislative elections had been set by year-end. Press freedom remains extremely fragile: journalists and media outlets—especially Radio Capital FM—face harassment, intimidation, and violent attacks. Civil society actors and human rights defenders also encounter arbitrary detention and physical assaults. Widespread corruption, weak judicial access, illegal economic activities, gender inequalities, and the trafficking of talibé children for forced begging and labor severely undermine the rule of law. Overall, governance structures remain weak, and fundamental freedoms continue to be compromised in Guinea-Bissau.

Politics, Bribery, Governance, Human Rights, Liberté d'expression, Instabilité