The article “A Growing Divergence of Narratives around Security in Burkina Faso” examines the communication strategy of the military junta led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré since the September 2022 coup. While the regime portrays itself as regaining territory, fostering economic innovation, and protecting civilians, evidence points to a worsening reality: nearly 18,000 deaths linked to jihadist violence in three years, an 87% rise in civilian casualties, and loss of control over 70% of national territory. The economy has suffered from collapsing gold and cotton production and a sharp decline in foreign investment. The humanitarian crisis is escalating, with millions displaced, thousands of schools and health centers shut down, and multiple simultaneous epidemics. The article highlights the growing gap between official narratives and empirical realities, amplified by disinformation campaigns orchestrated with Russian support. This divergence poses serious challenges for governance, regional stability, and democratic principles.

Natural ressources, Security, Political Violence, Education, Gold, Human security, Influence, Violence, Threat, Information

This article by Tin Kapetanovic examines the expansion of Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) across the Sahara-Sahel through the criminological concept of “transplantation.” It argues that JNIM’s relocation was shaped by both push and pull factors. Push factors included military pressure in northern Mali after France’s Operation Serval (2013) and competition with rival groups such as the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara. Pull factors encompassed weak state authority, ethnic tensions (notably between Fulani herders and Dogon farmers), economic opportunities from artisanal gold mining and smuggling routes, and Mopti’s strategic location. JNIM embedded itself locally by integrating traditional leaders, intermarrying, providing security and services, and establishing Sharia-based governance. Nonetheless, its expansion faced resistance from community self-defense militias and heightened counterterrorism operations by Malian and international forces. Applying the transplantation framework highlights JNIM’s deliberate organizational adaptation and environmental exploitation, offering insights beyond ideology or networks

Governance, Security, Terrorism, Extremism

This briefing addresses information integrity challenges in West Africa and proposes a context-appropriate policy framework. It reviews international, continental, and regional policy instruments, identifying gaps in digital governance. Aligned with UNESCO’s guidelines, the paper outlines minimum requirements for platform governance, particularly during elections or crises. The framework aims to promote responsible governance, build social cohesion, and safeguard democratic processes. It emphasizes the need to effectively counter misinformation, hate speech, and elevate access to reliable information as a public good. The briefing targets policymakers, regulators, civil society, journalists, and researchers working to protect digital rights and reinforce information integrity across the region.

Governance, Information, Social cohesion, Disinformation

This article examines the use of artificial intelligence techniques to predict interstate armed conflicts in West Africa. Using a comprehensive dataset spanning 1981–2018 and covering 16 countries in the region, the authors tested three machine learning models: random forest, logistic regression, and decision tree. Findings indicate that the random forest model performs best (98% accuracy, 83% recall). The most relevant predictors of conflict are differences in democracy levels and shared borders, while military expenditures prove less influential. The study highlights elevated risks for certain dyads, such as Guinea–Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast–Burkina Faso. By demonstrating the effectiveness of predictive models, this research contributes to the development of early warning systems for conflict prevention. However, it also stresses the limitations due to data imbalance and the need for continuous updates to enhance forecasting accuracy.

State, Security, Peace, Conflict, Political Violence, Education, Threat, Soicial sciences, Researh, Knowlege production, Intelligence artificielle

This report examines the evolution of Islamic donors in the Sahel, from their historical roots to their recent strategic shifts. Initially framed by South-South solidarity and the oil shocks of the 1970s, Gulf donors gradually expanded their influence through religious and private aid, notably via Islamic NGOs and non-profit organizations. The study highlights the privatization of aid, the emergence of a “Muslim humanitarianism,” and the growing role of Salafist NGOs in social work, especially in Senegal. These actors, perceived as close to communities, provide assistance considered accessible and effective, while challenging traditional Western cooperation models. Their strategies include delegitimizing classical partners and reshaping local socio-political dynamics. The report concludes that international agencies must adapt, build partnerships with legitimate Islamic actors, and integrate local cultural and religious contexts to enhance peacebuilding and sustainable development in the region.

Politics, Political party, State, Economic Development, Natural ressources, Donor, Gold, Social, Aid, Civil Society

The article “There will be no ECOWAS of the people with authoritarian states and gagged citizens,” by Pape Abdou Ndour, published on August 24, 2025 by WATHI – Think Tank citoyen, emphasizes that ECOWAS––founded in 1975––has fostered a sense of belonging among diverse West African populations and contributed significantly to regional peace and security. Yet, this anniversary coincides with troubling developments: the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, the normalization of violence, growing impunity, erosion of fundamental freedoms, and increasing militarization. The author argues that without adherence to democracy, rule of law, and citizens’ rights, there can be no “ECOWAS of the people.” The rising trend of sovereignty-driven resistance to integration is depicted as a serious threat to regional peace and development.

Politics, Governance, Democracy, Liberté, Regional integration

The Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin on Niger (No. 64, June–July 2025), published by Action Against Hunger (ACF), highlights improved pastoral conditions due to above-average rainfall, which boosted pasture regeneration and water availability. Overall, fodder resources are considered medium to sufficient, and livestock body condition is mostly fair, with some improvement noted. Nevertheless, localized biomass deficits, water shortages in specific areas, increased livestock theft, and community conflicts over resources remain challenges. Market analysis shows declining livestock prices, slight increases in cereal prices, and unfavorable terms of trade for herders. The report concludes with recommendations to strengthen vaccination campaigns, promote peaceful transhumance, ensure availability of fodder and cereals, and enhance risk preparedness in pastoral areas. It stresses the importance of continued support from state institutions, civil society, and humanitarian actors to secure pastoral livelihoods.

State, Livestock, Natural ressources, Security, Education, Gold, Human security, Knowlege production, Information, Marché

The article “Future research directions for climate-sensitive social protection” examines the current limitations of social protection systems in addressing climate change impacts, with a focus on the Sahel. While vital for crisis mitigation, such programs face challenges of low coverage, weak integration of climate data, and limited resources. Based on a global review and a regional case study in the Sahel (notably Mauritania and Senegal), the paper argues that scaling up and adapting existing programs may be more effective than creating new ones. Two key research priorities are highlighted: improving climate risk assessments to better inform program design, and developing “dynamic social registries” that combine socio-economic and environmental data for targeted responses. The authors stress the need for longitudinal studies, systematic evaluations, and pragmatic approaches that link social protection, climate adaptation, and community resilience.

Climate change, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Education, Human security, Soicial sciences, Researh, Knowlege production, Protection

The working paper “Digitalisation and Governance in the Sahel”, authored by Mori Gouroubera and published in February 2025, examines the growing role of digital transformation in governance across Sahelian countries. The paper highlights the opportunities provided by digitization—such as increased transparency, administrative efficiency, and citizen participation—while also identifying key obstacles including insufficient digital infrastructure, the digital divide, weak institutional coordination, ethical concerns, and cybersecurity. It analyzes digital services in key sectors like health, agriculture, and public services, and envisions three future scenarios: inclusive digital governance, fragmented digitization, or digital regression. The author’s recommendations stress the importance of reinforcing regional cooperation, investing in infrastructure, training populations, diversifying funding, and ensuring data protection. This framework aims to inform policies that foster a sustainable, inclusive, and contextually relevant digital transformation in the Sahel.

Governance, Numérique, Cybersecurity