The article examines Africa’s economic outlook for 2026, drawing on the analysis of Kenyan scholar Ken Opalo. Based on forecasts from the African Development Bank, Africa’s economic growth is expected to reach 4.4%, slightly surpassing Asia’s projected growth of 4.1%, an unprecedented situation in recent history. This growth is largely driven by commodities, particularly metals, and reflects a recovery after the COVID-19 slowdown. While acknowledging that GDP growth is an imperfect indicator of collective well-being, the author argues that growth remains preferable to stagnation, especially in low-income countries. Nations such as Ghana, Zambia and Ethiopia are showing signs of recovery. Major economies like Nigeria and South Africa are also improving, supported by macroeconomic reforms, energy sector changes and industrial investments. However, the article highlights persistent structural constraints, including poor management of natural resources, widespread smuggling, and chronic underinvestment in education, which undermine Africa’s ability to convert growth into long-term, inclusive development.

Governance

The article examines ten key trends that shaped Africa’s security landscape in 2025, using graphical and comparative data. It highlights the growing regionalization of conflicts, particularly the fragmentation of Sudan, which has become the world’s largest humanitarian crisis. The Sahel remains the deadliest region for Islamist militant violence, with security conditions worsening significantly in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger following military coups. Political instability is closely linked to democratic backsliding, increasing impunity, and abuses of power. The article also emphasizes intensifying geopolitical competition, notably the expanding security and economic presence of China, Russia, and Gulf states across the continent. Technological changes, especially the widespread use of drones, are transforming the nature of warfare and increasing risks to civilians. Despite these challenges, the article notes partial but meaningful progress toward the African Union’s Agenda 2063, particularly in infrastructure development, regional connectivity, and continental economic integration.

Political party, State, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Political Violence, Human security, Violence, Threat

The article examines China’s strategy to dominate Africa’s critical minerals sector, which is vital for defense technologies, energy transition, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence. Through long-term investments, China now controls more than half of global critical mineral production and about 87% of global refining capacity. In Africa, this dominance is built on the acquisition of strategic mines, control of key infrastructure—ports, railways, and energy—through the Belt and Road Initiative, and resource-backed financing agreements. This vertically integrated approach constrains African countries’ ability to move up the value chain and deepens their economic dependence. The article also highlights the environmental, social, and political risks linked to Chinese mining practices, illustrated by major pollution scandals in several African countries. In response, some African governments are pursuing greater mineral sovereignty through export restrictions, regional industrial zones, and local processing policies, aiming to capture more value from their natural resources and reduce structural dependency.

Politics, Political party, State, Sovereignty, Natural ressources, Justice, Influence, Private sector, Civil Society, Information

This report by the UNESCO International Institute for Educational Planning examines corruption risks in Guinea’s education sector, focusing on three critical areas: public procurement, school infrastructure construction, and the management of textbooks and school feeding programmes. Despite the existence of a formal regulatory framework, the study identifies widespread practices that undermine transparency, including bribery, manipulation of procurement procedures, weak oversight mechanisms, and limited technical capacity at the local level. School construction projects are frequently affected by political pressure and non-compliance with the official school mapping system. The textbook supply chain is particularly vulnerable, with documented cases of fraud, poor contract enforcement, and large discrepancies between planned and actual distribution. School feeding programmes also face risks related to inflated prices, incomplete deliveries, and substandard food quality. The report concludes with a set of practical recommendations aimed at strengthening accountability, improving stock management systems, enhancing inspection capacities, and increasing community participation to reduce corruption risks in the education sector.

Politics, Bribery, Governance, Education

The Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin for Niger (October–November 2025) highlights a generally favorable situation for pastoral households at the end of the rainy season. Pasture availability is assessed as good to very good across most monitored areas, supported by above-average vegetation cover. Surface water resources remain largely sufficient for livestock watering, despite localized shortages, notably in Gouré and Tchintabaraden. Livestock body condition is overall satisfactory, reflecting these favorable environmental conditions. From an economic perspective, rising livestock prices combined with a generalized decline in cereal prices have improved livestock-to-cereal terms of trade, benefiting herders in most regions. However, the bulletin also reports a slight deterioration in the security context, characterized by increased livestock theft, intercommunal conflicts, and armed incidents in certain areas. As the transhumance period approaches, these security challenges may heighten tensions around natural resource access and pose risks to pastoral livelihoods.

State, Livestock, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Education, Human security, Marché, water

The Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin of Senegal – October–November 2025 (No. 43) assesses pastoral conditions at the end of the rainy season and the onset of the cool dry season. It highlights a generally satisfactory availability of pasture and water resources in central, southern and eastern Senegal, contrasted with persistent fodder deficits in the northern regions (Saint-Louis, Louga, Matam). Bush fires, particularly widespread in Matam, Tambacounda and Kaffrine, have negatively affected vegetation regeneration. While the body condition of small ruminants remains largely good, that of large ruminants shows localized deterioration in deficit areas. Market analysis shows rising livestock prices, but persistently high cereal prices, especially rice, have resulted in unfavourable terms of trade for many pastoral households, notably in northern and eastern zones. The bulletin also stresses the limited and uneven support to the pastoral sector, calling for increased vigilance and better-targeted interventions to reduce vulnerabilities.

Power, State, Livestock, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Education, Human security, water

This article examines the determinants of willingness to pay (WTP) for flood insurance in urban Burkina Faso, with a particular focus on the role of information and information sources. The analysis is based on a field survey conducted in September 2022 among 593 individuals in Ouagadougou. The findings indicate that 71.3% of respondents are willing to pay for flood insurance, although most report a WTP lower than the expected loss. Being well informed about flood risks increases WTP, but the relationship is not proportional, as perfectly informed individuals may display lower WTP. Trust in government and private insurance providers, as well as ambiguity aversion, positively influence WTP, while reliance on family networks and risk aversion reduce it. The study highlights the importance of integrating information effects and communication channels into flood risk management and insurance demand policies in urban contexts.

Power, State, Natural ressources, Education, Family, Medias, Knowlege production, Information, water

The article examines how the December 7, 2025 attempted coup in Benin became a narrative struggle between opposing interpretations of the event. The Military Committee for Refoundation (CMR) aimed to promote a revolutionary narrative by occupying the national television and denouncing deteriorating security conditions. In response, the Beninese government quickly crafted a counter-narrative, led by the Minister of the Interior, that downplayed the incident as an isolated mutiny and employed crisis communication strategies to reassure the public and stabilize perceptions. The article highlights the role of framing in shaping public understanding and explains that the government’s rapid and controlled communication neutralized the putschists’ messaging. Despite the failure of the attempted coup, the underlying causes of the crisis remain unresolved, and the article argues that future communication should focus on reforms to address grievances and prevent similar challenges to constitutional order.

Governance, Conflict, Crisis, Coup d'État

The Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin of Mauritania No. 36 examines agropastoral conditions during October–November 2025, a transition period between the rainy season and the dry season. Overall, pasture availability remains satisfactory in monitored areas (Hodh Chargui, Guidimakha, Brakna, and Gorgol), despite the gradual drying up of temporary water sources and an increase in bushfires, which threaten rangeland sustainability. Livestock body condition is generally good, although suspected animal diseases persist, prompting the launch of the 2025–2026 national livestock vaccination campaign. Markets remain supplied, but high cereal prices continue to limit favorable terms of trade for pastoral households. The bulletin also highlights growing pressure linked to the continuous arrival of Malian refugees, particularly in eastern Mauritania, increasing competition over natural resources and heightening the risk of social tensions.

State, Economic Development, Livestock, Natural ressources, Security, Education, Human security, Knowlege production, water