This study analyzes Early Warning Systems (EWS) in West Africa and their role in preventing and managing security, social, and climate-related crises. Based on field research conducted in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, and Togo with 120 key stakeholders, it examines the ECOWARN regional network as well as national and community-based mechanisms. The report highlights the importance of multilateral cooperation, rapid information circulation, and coordination between local, national, and regional levels. It also identifies persistent governance challenges, data-sharing constraints, and the diversity of system users. The gradual integration of artificial intelligence into data analysis emerges as a key innovation to enhance anticipation and response capacities. Overall, the interconnection of EWS strengthens regional resilience and reinforces West African multilateralism in the face of complex and evolving risks.

Politics, Political party, Natural ressources, Security, Education, Gold, Human security, Information, Donnée, water

This article analyzes the evolution of Malian civil society within the political transition initiated in 2020. Amid profound institutional reforms, the dissolution of political parties in 2025, and a perceived shrinking of civic space, civil society faces a strategic turning point. The study provides a typological mapping of actors (human rights organizations, youth movements, women’s associations, trade unions, religious organizations, think tanks, and diaspora groups) and examines their contribution to state refoundation reforms. It highlights tensions between collaboration and autonomy, support for transitional authorities and counter-power functions. The article also emphasizes major structural challenges: dependency on external funding, organizational weaknesses, internal fragmentation, and political ambiguities. Despite these constraints, civil society remains a key actor in social cohesion and civic participation. The analysis concludes that its future will depend on its adaptability, financial resilience, and ability to clarify its democratic positioning.

Politics, Political party, State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Education, Gold, Social, Civil Society

This article examines the emergence of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), created in 2023 by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger following a series of military coups. The author situates the AES within the broader trajectory of Sahelian securitization, rooted in counterterrorism strategies implemented since the early 2000s. Drawing on securitization and resilience theories, the study argues that AES regimes promote a form of “maintenance resilience,” aimed at preserving an already securitized political order rather than addressing the structural drivers of insecurity. Despite official narratives emphasizing sovereignty, rupture, and anti-imperialism, the Alliance largely reproduces existing security logics and dependencies, particularly through new external military partnerships. The analysis highlights how the dominance of security-based governance reinforces the suspension of democratic processes and limits prospects for political transformation. Ultimately, the article questions the capacity of the AES to provide a sustainable and inclusive response to the Sahel’s multidimensional crises.

Politics, Political party, State, Governance, Natural ressources, Security, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat

This policy brief examines the consequences of the withdrawal of USAID from migration-related activities in Mauritania in 2025. Although USAID was not the country’s largest donor, its exit weakened several key programmes supporting youth resilience, social cohesion, refugee protection and food security. The sudden suspension of funding led to the interruption of flagship projects such as Nafoore and Tamkeen, with significant impacts on local NGOs, UN agencies and municipalities, particularly in migration hotspots like Hodh El Chargui. The analysis highlights that USAID’s withdrawal occurred alongside strengthened European migration control policies, increasing the risk of human rights violations against migrants. While other donors (European Union, KOICA, Italian cooperation) have partially filled the gap, coordination remains limited and fragmented. The policy brief calls for diversification of funding sources, stronger national institutional capacities, and an integrated migration–development–protection approach to ensure the sustainability of migration governance and support mechanisms in Mauritania.

Economic Development, Migration, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Education, Gold, Human security, Social, Funding

This article examines the impact of the suspension of USAID activities on Nigeria’s health ecosystem, with a particular focus on HIV and malaria programmes, health workforce stability, and domestic health financing. Based on key informant interviews with government officials, civil society organisations, and implementing partners, the study highlights how the abrupt funding cuts led to service disruptions, medicine stock-outs, layoffs of health workers, and weakened monitoring and prevention mechanisms. These effects were especially severe in states heavily reliant on external donor funding. Despite these challenges, the article documents adaptive responses by Nigerian authorities and partners, including budget reallocations, engagement with new donors, and increased emphasis on domestic resource mobilisation. The author argues that the crisis exposes the structural vulnerability of health systems dependent on a single donor and calls for more resilient, diversified, and nationally anchored financing strategies. The article concludes with policy recommendations aimed at strengthening sustainability and preparedness within Nigeria’s health sector.

State, Economic Development, Conflict, Development, Donor, Threat, Aid, Knowlege production, EMPLOYMENT, Funding

The article “Far from the battle of narratives and passions: exploring the lived experiences of populations in besieged localities in Mali” draws on the research study Living under blockade: areas under JNIM influence in Mali, conducted by Mahamadou Bassirou Tangara and Ibrahima Poudiougou. The study examines the impact of blockades imposed by jihadist armed groups, particularly the Katiba Macina affiliated with JNIM, on civilian populations in central Mali. Using a qualitative and comparative methodology in the Mopti and Ségou regions, the authors document the severe consequences of these blockades: isolation, collapse of economic activities, targeted violence, restrictions on movement, social fragmentation, and school closures. The article highlights blockade as a long-term strategy of territorial control with devastating effects on daily life, far beyond military considerations. By centering local voices and lived experiences, the research moves away from ideological narratives and provides grounded insights that are essential for informing political and security decision-making in Mali.

Politics, Governance, Security, Crisis, Groupes armés

The article “Can Guinea eradicate coups d’état from its political culture?”, written by David Zounmenou for the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), examines the structural drivers behind Guinea’s September 5, 2021 military coup and the country’s long-standing pattern of unconstitutional power seizures. The overthrow of President Alpha Condé followed his highly contested third term, made possible by constitutional manipulation, and occurred amid widespread political repression, poor governance, and entrenched impunity. The author argues that the lack of accountability undermines democratic consolidation and creates fertile ground for repeated military intervention. By placing the 2021 coup in Guinea’s historical trajectory—marked by successive military regimes since independence—the article highlights the fragility of both political and security institutions. More broadly, it challenges the notion that coups reflect a failure of democracy itself, instead pointing to governance deficits and abuse of power. To end coups as a political norm, the article calls for ending impunity, strengthening constitutional order, and firmer action by the African Union and regional bodies.

Culture, Politics, Governance, Security, Coup d'État

This multisectoral surveillance bulletin examines the humanitarian, agro-pastoral, health, nutrition, and security situation in the regions of Tombouctou and Taoudénni in Mali for October–November 2025. It highlights the continuation of rice harvesting and the completion of rain-fed crops, generally assessed as satisfactory despite input shortages and localized drought-related losses. Rising water levels of the Niger River have improved pastoral resources but temporarily disrupted road infrastructure and reduced fishing production. From a security perspective, reported incidents have declined; however, persistent pressure from armed groups—including access restrictions and zakat collection—has led to significant internal displacement. Food security remains fragile, with projections indicating a sharp increase in populations facing crisis levels of food insecurity in 2026. Nutritional conditions have deteriorated, particularly in Tombouctou, where cases of global acute malnutrition have risen. This situation is exacerbated by infectious diseases, malaria, and low household purchasing power, underscoring the need for strengthened humanitarian and social protection interventions.

Culture, Power, State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Family, Food security, Gold, Malnutrition, water

The article examines ten key trends that shaped Africa’s security landscape in 2025, using graphical and comparative data. It highlights the growing regionalization of conflicts, particularly the fragmentation of Sudan, which has become the world’s largest humanitarian crisis. The Sahel remains the deadliest region for Islamist militant violence, with security conditions worsening significantly in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger following military coups. Political instability is closely linked to democratic backsliding, increasing impunity, and abuses of power. The article also emphasizes intensifying geopolitical competition, notably the expanding security and economic presence of China, Russia, and Gulf states across the continent. Technological changes, especially the widespread use of drones, are transforming the nature of warfare and increasing risks to civilians. Despite these challenges, the article notes partial but meaningful progress toward the African Union’s Agenda 2063, particularly in infrastructure development, regional connectivity, and continental economic integration.

Political party, State, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat