The article examines ten key trends that shaped Africa’s security landscape in 2025, using graphical and comparative data. It highlights the growing regionalization of conflicts, particularly the fragmentation of Sudan, which has become the world’s largest humanitarian crisis. The Sahel remains the deadliest region for Islamist militant violence, with security conditions worsening significantly in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger following military coups. Political instability is closely linked to democratic backsliding, increasing impunity, and abuses of power. The article also emphasizes intensifying geopolitical competition, notably the expanding security and economic presence of China, Russia, and Gulf states across the continent. Technological changes, especially the widespread use of drones, are transforming the nature of warfare and increasing risks to civilians. Despite these challenges, the article notes partial but meaningful progress toward the African Union’s Agenda 2063, particularly in infrastructure development, regional connectivity, and continental economic integration.

Political party, State, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat

The Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin of Senegal – October–November 2025 (No. 43) assesses pastoral conditions at the end of the rainy season and the onset of the cool dry season. It highlights a generally satisfactory availability of pasture and water resources in central, southern and eastern Senegal, contrasted with persistent fodder deficits in the northern regions (Saint-Louis, Louga, Matam). Bush fires, particularly widespread in Matam, Tambacounda and Kaffrine, have negatively affected vegetation regeneration. While the body condition of small ruminants remains largely good, that of large ruminants shows localized deterioration in deficit areas. Market analysis shows rising livestock prices, but persistently high cereal prices, especially rice, have resulted in unfavourable terms of trade for many pastoral households, notably in northern and eastern zones. The bulletin also stresses the limited and uneven support to the pastoral sector, calling for increased vigilance and better-targeted interventions to reduce vulnerabilities.

Power, State, Livestock, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Education, Gold, Human security, water

The Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin for Niger (October–November 2025) highlights a generally favorable situation for pastoral households at the end of the rainy season. Pasture availability is assessed as good to very good across most monitored areas, supported by above-average vegetation cover. Surface water resources remain largely sufficient for livestock watering, despite localized shortages, notably in Gouré and Tchintabaraden. Livestock body condition is overall satisfactory, reflecting these favorable environmental conditions. From an economic perspective, rising livestock prices combined with a generalized decline in cereal prices have improved livestock-to-cereal terms of trade, benefiting herders in most regions. However, the bulletin also reports a slight deterioration in the security context, characterized by increased livestock theft, intercommunal conflicts, and armed incidents in certain areas. As the transhumance period approaches, these security challenges may heighten tensions around natural resource access and pose risks to pastoral livelihoods.

State, Livestock, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Education, Gold, Human security, Marché, water

The Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin for Northern Côte d’Ivoire (August–September 2025) assesses pastoral conditions in the Bounkani and Tchologo regions during the rainy season. It highlights a generally favorable availability of pasture and water resources, supported by regular rainfall, although localized shortages persist in areas such as Diawala, Nafana, and Youndouo. Overall animal health is considered satisfactory, despite isolated disease outbreaks in zones with high livestock concentration. The bulletin also points to a fragile security context, characterized by recurrent cattle theft and localized incidents, particularly in Bounkani. The influx of refugees from Ghana increases pressure on natural resources and heightens the risk of social tensions. From an economic perspective, markets remain accessible, but terms of trade deteriorate in Bounkani, indicating a decline in pastoral purchasing power. The report calls for strengthened community monitoring, improved animal health surveillance, and enhanced cross-border coordination to anticipate emerging risks.

Power, State, Livestock, Natural ressources, Security, Education, Gold, Human security, Marché, water

The Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin No. 27 assesses pastoral conditions in Burkina Faso during August–September 2025, the peak of the rainy season. Based on field surveys and satellite data, the report highlights generally good availability of pasture and water resources, with vegetation cover ranging from 60% to 90%. Livestock mobility is reduced, and animal concentrations are moderate to high, particularly around agricultural areas. However, regional disparities remain, with localized shortages of pasture and water in parts of western and central Burkina Faso. Although cereal prices declined slightly and livestock prices improved marginally, terms of trade continue to be unfavorable for herders. The bulletin also reports persistent cattle theft and localized conflicts, especially in border areas. Overall, pastoral conditions have improved compared to the previous period, but the report emphasizes the need to strengthen pastoral resilience, improve conflict prevention mechanisms, and enhance support to pastoral communities.

State, Pastoralism, Livestock, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Education, Gold, Human security, Marché, water

This regional report by Action Against Hunger assesses vegetation biomass production in the Sahel during the 2025 growing season using satellite imagery and climatic data. It finds that the 2025 rainy season was generally normal to above average across Sahelian countries, resulting in good to very good biomass production, exceeding the 25-year average, though remaining below the exceptional levels observed in 2024. Central Sahel areas, particularly in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, recorded significant positive anomalies, while localized deficits persist in western Senegal, south-western Mauritania and the Lake Chad basin. In coastal countries, biomass production remains below average despite slight improvement compared to 2024. The report indicates that pastoral vulnerability for the 2026 dry season is generally low; however, insecurity, restrictions on transhumant movements and livestock concentration significantly constrain access to grazing resources, increasing the risk of early and difficult pastoral lean periods in several zones.

Pastoralism, Natural ressources, Security, Development, Gold, Poverty, Human security, Vulnerability, Knowlege production, water

Issue 34 of the Sahel Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin highlights an overall improvement in pastoral conditions across the region during August–September 2025. Pasture and water availability is generally satisfactory, contributing to good livestock body condition. However, significant spatial disparities remain, with some areas experiencing low vegetation cover while others face excess water and flooding risks. Livestock markets are mostly accessible, yet rising animal prices combined with fluctuating cereal prices continue to negatively affect terms of trade for pastoralists in several locations. From a health perspective, outbreaks of animal and human diseases have been reported, requiring increased monitoring. Security conditions remain fragile in parts of the region, marked by recurrent livestock theft and increased pressure on pastoral resources due to the presence of displaced and refugee populations.

State, Livestock, Natural ressources, Security, Education, Gold, Human security, Health, Information, Marché, water

The report demonstrates a sharp deterioration of Mali’s security situation since the military junta seized power in 2020. Violence by militant Islamist groups has surged and now covers every region, including areas close to Bamako. Maps throughout the report (pp. 1–4) show the rapid geographic expansion of attacks. In 2023, Mali is on track to exceed 1,000 violent events, nearly triple the level recorded when the junta took power. Focused on consolidating its rule, the junta alienated regional and international security partners and demanded the withdrawal of the 15,000-strong UN mission (MINUSMA), pushing northern Mali to the brink of renewed civil war. The arrival of Russia-linked Wagner forces has worsened abuses, with more than 320 human rights violations documented. In the center and south, FLM, JNIM, and ISGS have strengthened their operations. State authority is collapsing as civilians face escalating attacks, instability, and governance breakdown.

Political party, State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat

The Freedom in the World 2024 – Guinea-Bissau report by Freedom House highlights persistent political instability. President Umaro Sissoco Embaló’s 2019 electoral victory was internationally recognized, yet tensions between the presidency and parliament have deepened, culminating in the dissolution of the National Assembly in December 2023 and the use of force to block MPs from entering the building. No date for new legislative elections had been set by year-end. Press freedom remains extremely fragile: journalists and media outlets—especially Radio Capital FM—face harassment, intimidation, and violent attacks. Civil society actors and human rights defenders also encounter arbitrary detention and physical assaults. Widespread corruption, weak judicial access, illegal economic activities, gender inequalities, and the trafficking of talibé children for forced begging and labor severely undermine the rule of law. Overall, governance structures remain weak, and fundamental freedoms continue to be compromised in Guinea-Bissau.

Politics, Bribery, Governance, Human Rights, Liberté d'expression, Instabilité