The article titled "African Demography and Migrations: Between Alarmism and Denial", written by Christian Bouquet and published on May 2, 2018, in The Conversation, examines Africa's demographic dynamics and their migratory implications. The author highlights that, despite sometimes questionable statistics, trends indicate a rapid growth of the African population, increasing from 640 million in 1990 to 1.256 billion in 2017. With an average fertility rate of 4.7 children per woman, Africa could reach 2.528 billion inhabitants by 2050 and 4.468 billion by 2100, then representing 40% of the world's population. This demographic growth sparks debates between alarmism and optimism regarding the continent's future. The author calls for a nuanced approach, avoiding both dramatization and denial, to address the challenges and opportunities associated with this evolution.

Governance, Migration, Politique publique, Démographie

Niger faces a dual threat: jihadist attacks and corruption within its army. Armed groups operate in the east and west, severely testing defense forces. Simultaneously, corruption scandals tarnish military credibility. In May 2020, a fallen soldier's posthumous letter condemned the war's transformation into a "business." An audit by the General Inspectorate of the Armed Forces revealed that between 2014 and 2019, approximately 76 billion CFA francs (116 million euros) were embezzled in arms contracts, accounting for nearly 45% of the annual defense budget. This undermines the effectiveness of counterterrorism efforts and highlights the urgent need for reforms to restore trust and strengthen national security.

State, Bribery, Conflict, Jihad, Military activity, Violence, Crisis

In response to their withdrawal from ECOWAS, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger created the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) with the goal of forming a confederation. This article places the initiative in historical context, recalling failed attempts at territorial federations in West Africa (like the OCRS and the Mali Federation). It examines the logistical and administrative challenges of governing such a vast, landlocked territory, and highlights the increased reliance on Russia (notably the Wagner Group) for security. The article raises concerns about a new form of geopolitical dependency. It concludes that the AES does not represent a genuine break but rather a repetition of unresolved post-independence issues: geographic isolation, internal tensions, ungovernability, and fragile regional integration.

State, Sovereignty, Diplomacy

In the interview “War on Jihadism: Mali and Burkina Faso Facing an Uncertain Future”, published on December 21, 2022, in Areion24 and featured in Les grands dossiers de Diplomatie (No. 71), Adib Bencherif, a political science professor and LIRIC director, outlines the "delicate" security situation in Mali and Burkina Faso. He chronicles ongoing clashes between jihadists (notably JNIM) and Malian forces supported by Wagner, highlighting abuses against Peul communities that fuel distrust in the State . Bencherif asserts there is little short-term hope, though there's slightly more optimism in Burkina, where the junta is seen as more pragmatic . This analysis warns of the states' limited capacity to halt jihadist expansion and calls for a reconsideration of security, political, and social responses.

Jihad, Terrorism, Counter terrorism