This report explores the rise, evolution, and fragmentation of armed extremist groups in the Sahel—AQIM, MUJAO, JNIM, and ISGS. It outlines the root causes of their proliferation: weak state presence, social marginalization, environmental pressures, geopolitical interference, and security vacuums. The analysis reveals how these groups adapt strategically, build local ties, and exploit state fragility. The fall of Libya, successive coups, and the withdrawal of international actors (France, the UN) have reshaped the security environment. The report advocates a multidimensional response: inclusive governance, socio-economic investment, stronger regional cooperation, and engagement of traditional leaders. It highlights the growing threat of violence spilling over into West African coastal states and calls for locally rooted, tailored strategies to achieve sustainable peace and resilience in the region.

Politics, Political party, Natural ressources, Security, Jihad, Terrorism, Political Violence, Gold, Violence, Threat

This report explores major geopolitical shifts in West Africa, notably the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from ECOWAS and the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). It highlights the erosion of trust in regional institutions, the increasing presence of external powers (Russia, China, Turkey), and the risk of renewed proxy conflicts. The author advocates for a more inclusive and responsive diplomacy focused on grassroots realities. The report calls for a reimagining of regional integration—one that strengthens civil society, local peacebuilding, and democratic governance. It insists on restoring citizen trust, shifting from punitive approaches to constructive dialogue, and embracing leadership rooted in local needs and values. Ultimately, it offers a vision for sustainable peace based on justice, inclusion, and community empowerment.

Governance, Civil Society

This podcast-article warns against the growing spread of disinformation in West Africa, especially centered around Captain Ibrahim Traoré, Burkina Faso’s transitional leader. AI-generated deepfakes glorify him as a pan-African hero, widely circulating on social media and fueling polarization. The author highlights the decline of rational discourse, replaced by radical and binary narratives. He stresses the danger this manipulation poses to democracy, social cohesion, and youth mobilization. The piece also denounces repression in Burkina Faso and the departure of educated professionals from the Sahel. Drawing on Thomas Sankara’s legacy, the author calls for critical thinking and warns against youth being exploited by authoritarian figures using digital disinformation as a weapon.

Youth, Réseaux sociaux, Disinformation

Since 2011, North and West Africa have experienced escalating violence, averaging 3,300 violent events and 12,600 deaths annually between 2015 and 2019. This trend worsened in 2020-2021, with 6,800 events and 18,000 deaths per year. The epicenter of violence has shifted to Nigeria and the border area between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Civilian-targeted violence has surged by 500% in West Africa since 2016, due to the proliferation of actors such as extremist groups, community militias, and self-defense forces. In 2021, 60% of victims were located within 100 km of a border. The Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi), developed by SWAC/OECD, maps conflict evolution and identifies critical areas, notably Lake Chad, the tri-border region, and Nigeria.

Governance, Boundary, Security, Conflict, Extremism, Violence

This study investigates the prevalence and determinants of female genital mutilation (FGM) in ten high-risk Sub-Saharan African countries. Utilizing Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from 129,182 women aged 15–49, the authors report an overall FGM prevalence of 53.5%. Factors associated with a higher likelihood of undergoing FGM include older age, lack of formal education, rural residence, unemployment, poverty, belief that FGM is religiously mandated, support for wife-beating, and limited decision-making power regarding health. The study emphasizes the need for urgent, targeted interventions that address these socio-economic and cultural determinants to eliminate this harmful practice.

Governance, Santé publique, Female genital mutilation, Women's rights

In 2024, the number of forcibly displaced people in Africa reached a record high, exceeding 45 million, a 14% increase from the previous year. The majority (over 34 million) are internally displaced. The Sudan emerged as the epicenter of the crisis, with 12.6 million displaced due to fighting between the army and Rapid Support Forces. Other severely affected countries include the DR Congo, Somalia, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Mali, and Cameroon. Primary causes include armed conflicts, state repression (notably in Eritrea and Rwanda), regional instability, and acute food insecurity. The report emphasizes the growing interlinkage between security and humanitarian crises and calls for greater international support to address the complex political and humanitarian challenges across the continent.

Natural ressources, Security, Peace, Conflict, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat, Civil Society

In 2024, violence by Islamist militant groups in Africa caused an estimated 18,900 deaths, with the Sahel, Somalia, and the Lake Chad Basin most affected. The Sahel alone accounted for 55% of the total fatalities, notably in Burkina Faso, which has become the epicenter of insurgent activity. The JNIM coalition (linked to AQIM) is responsible for the majority of attacks. Alarmingly, more civilians were killed by Sahelian security forces and their Russian allies than by militants. Violence is rising in Niger, Togo, and Benin, while Somalia, despite a decrease in deaths, remains impacted by Al Shabaab and the Islamic State. Mozambique and North Africa have also seen renewed increases. The report warns that actual figures may be underreported due to media repression. The data illustrates the persistence and adaptability of militant operations across the continent.

Political party, State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat

This Policy Brief explores Senegal’s role in mediating the crisis between ECOWAS and the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), formed by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger after their withdrawal from ECOWAS. Drawing on its diplomatic tradition and neutrality, Senegal, under President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, has been appointed as a facilitator. While Senegal officially promotes the AES’s return to ECOWAS, its emissary's statements suggest a more nuanced stance. The brief analyzes issues of regional integration, governance, security cooperation, and sovereignty. It highlights the need for realistic mediation, one that acknowledges the AES states’ security concerns while preserving ECOWAS’s democratic and economic frameworks. The document also emphasizes the regional consequences of the split, including economic fragmentation and weakened security cooperation, urging Senegal to play a strategic and balanced role.

Politics, Political party, Power, State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Conflict, Gold, Human security, Diplomacy, Crisis

This report documents the sharp rise in disinformation campaigns across Africa—from 50 in 2022 to 189 in 2024—with nearly 60% sponsored by foreign state actors, chiefly Russia, China, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. West Africa is the most targeted region, with 72 campaigns, particularly in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. These campaigns aim to shape political narratives, undermine democracy, support military coups, and discredit international institutions. Russia-linked networks, including Wagner, have been central in the Sahel. The report also highlights increasing domestic disinformation, notably during Kenya’s 2022 and Nigeria’s 2023 elections, as well as growing involvement of Islamist militant groups. Disinformation is spreading rapidly due to social media use and declining press freedom, posing a significant threat to stability, civil rights, and democratic governance across the continent.

Politics, Political party, State, Natural ressources, Education, Gold, Social, Influence, Infowar, Information