In this interview published by IRIS, Jean-Marc Gravellini analyzes Chad's political and geopolitical situation. He discusses the appointment of Succès Masra, a former opponent of the military regime, as Transitional Prime Minister on January 1, 2024. This appointment is seen as an attempt to include the opposition in the transition process. Gravellini highlights the ongoing challenges Chad faces, including governance, security, and development issues. He also points out Russia's growing influence in the region, as it seeks to strengthen its presence in Central Africa. The article concludes by examining Chad's relations with neighboring countries and the geopolitical implications of these regional dynamics.

Politics, Governance, Transition

In his article titled "La cartographie électorale en Afrique. L’expérience de LAMencartes," published on December 10, 2024, on Géoconfluences, Christian Bouquet, emeritus professor of political geography at the University Bordeaux-Montaigne and Sciences Po Bordeaux, shares the experience of the LAMenCartes workshop, initiated in 2015 by the laboratory Les Afriques dans le Monde (LAM-CNRS). This workshop aims to produce electoral maps for various African countries, despite challenges such as difficulties in accessing reliable data, varying transparency of elections, and technical obstacles related to data collection. Bouquet highlights that, although progress has been made, major obstacles remain, notably due to the reluctance of authorities to provide complete and accurate data. He also emphasizes the importance of electoral cartography in revealing territorial divisions based on ethno-regional lines, while acknowledging the limitations of this exercise in contexts where elections may be marred by fraud.

Politics, Governance, Election

Drissa Millogo’s study analyzes the deadlocks in Mali’s peace process, which are linked to poor governance, intercommunal tensions, domestic jihadism, and foreign interference (France, Russia, Gulf monarchies). It calls for a complete rethinking of security approaches, grounded in popular sovereignty, horizontal cooperation, and stronger civil society engagement. Niger is portrayed as a fragile state threatened by jihadist infiltration from Nigeria and the tri-border area; President Issoufou advocates for a firm policy with international backing. Burkina Faso is highlighted for its regional diplomacy under President Compaoré but is also viewed with suspicion due to alleged ties with armed groups. The study promotes inclusive local governance and sincere regional cooperation as essential foundations for peace.

Governance, Peace, Conflict, Crisis management, Jihad, Civil Society, Groupes armés

The article titled "Confederation of the Sahel: Risks and Challenges of a New Alliance", written by Christian Bouquet and published on July 15, 2024, in The Conversation, examines the transformation of the Alliance of Sahel States (ASS) — comprising Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — into a confederation of states. This shift follows their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The author highlights the significant economic implications of this decision, notably the end of free trade agreements with other ECOWAS members, thereby restricting the free movement of goods, capital, and people to only ASS countries and members of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). A major challenge identified is the geographical landlocked nature of these countries, lacking direct access to the sea, complicating their exports and imports. Additionally, the monetary issue arises, as these nations still use the CFA franc and remain dependent on UEMOA and the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO). The creation of their own currency is considered, but its implementation appears complex and lengthy.

Governance, Cooperation

In July 2024, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger left the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to form the former Confederation of the Sahel. This decision comes against a backdrop of demographic and climatic crises, as well as insecurity linked to jihadism. Since the 1970s, reduced harvesting has reduced arable land, while the population has quintupled, exacerbating conflicts over resources. Foreign military interventions, deemed ineffective, led to military coups in these countries between 2020 and 2023. The new Junes fueled anti-French sentiment and moved closer to Russia. Faced with ECOWAS sanctions, these states proclaimed the Alliance of Sahel States in September 2023, evolving into the Sahel Confederation in July 2024. This secession exposes them to the challenges of enclavement and the management of vast territories that are difficult to control.

Governance, Coopération régionale

The article titled "African Demography and Migrations: Between Alarmism and Denial", written by Christian Bouquet and published on May 2, 2018, in The Conversation, examines Africa's demographic dynamics and their migratory implications. The author highlights that, despite sometimes questionable statistics, trends indicate a rapid growth of the African population, increasing from 640 million in 1990 to 1.256 billion in 2017. With an average fertility rate of 4.7 children per woman, Africa could reach 2.528 billion inhabitants by 2050 and 4.468 billion by 2100, then representing 40% of the world's population. This demographic growth sparks debates between alarmism and optimism regarding the continent's future. The author calls for a nuanced approach, avoiding both dramatization and denial, to address the challenges and opportunities associated with this evolution.

Governance, Migration, Politique publique, Démographie

In his report titled "Promoting Peace and Social Justice through Balanced Land Governance in Mali," published on May 4, 2024, by the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation, Dr. Lamine Doumbia examines the challenges related to land governance in Mali. He emphasizes that unbalanced land policies contribute to social tensions and conflicts, thereby hindering peace and social justice. The report proposes an inclusive land governance approach involving all stakeholders, including local communities, traditional authorities, and the state. This approach aims to ensure equitable land distribution, recognize customary rights, and strengthen community participation in decision-making. Dr. Doumbia argues that adopting such measures is essential to promote sustainable peace and social justice in Mali.

Governance, Peace, REAL ESTATE

The article “Self-defense groups, pyromaniac firefighters of the Sahel” by Mathieu Pellerin, published by the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) on December 14, 2022, analyzes the rise in power of self-defense groups in the Sahel since 2012. Faced with the expansion of jihadist groups and the withdrawal of states from certain rural areas, local communities have formed self-defense entities to ensure their own security. Although these groups can complement state security efforts, their lack of legal framework and coordination can worsen insecurity. Their armed intervention can intensify communal violence and further weaken state authority, leading to alternative forms of armed governance. This situation calls into question the traditional state model and the modes of local governance, where state, customary and jihadist systems intersect.

State, Governance, Jihad, Violence

In his August 2020 report titled "Disorder from Chaos: Why Europeans Fail to Promote Stability in the Sahel," Andrew Lebovich examines the reasons behind the European initiatives' struggles to establish stability in the Sahel. He highlights that, despite the creation of the Sahel Alliance in 2017 by France, Germany, and Sahelian countries, the expected outcomes have not been achieved. Lebovich identifies several contributing factors, including poorly coordinated approaches, insufficient understanding of local dynamics, and differing priorities between European and Sahelian actors. He recommends a reassessment of current strategies, emphasizing the importance of closer collaboration with local communities and adapting policies to on-the-ground realities to enhance the effectiveness of European interventions in the region.

Politics, Governance, Cooperation