The article titled "African Demography and Migrations: Between Alarmism and Denial", written by Christian Bouquet and published on May 2, 2018, in The Conversation, examines Africa's demographic dynamics and their migratory implications. The author highlights that, despite sometimes questionable statistics, trends indicate a rapid growth of the African population, increasing from 640 million in 1990 to 1.256 billion in 2017. With an average fertility rate of 4.7 children per woman, Africa could reach 2.528 billion inhabitants by 2050 and 4.468 billion by 2100, then representing 40% of the world's population. This demographic growth sparks debates between alarmism and optimism regarding the continent's future. The author calls for a nuanced approach, avoiding both dramatization and denial, to address the challenges and opportunities associated with this evolution.

Governance, Migration, Politique publique, Démographie

This study investigates the local and regional dynamics that sustain the resilience of jihadist groups in the Sahel. It analyzes the strategies of groups like Boko Haram, AQIM, and ISGS, emphasizing their social, economic, and ideological foundations. Moving away from global perspectives, the study highlights that these groups rely more on community and clan-based structures than on international coordination. The porous borders of the region enable the movement of fighters and ideas while constraining the effectiveness of international interventions. By focusing on local realities, the study shows that these insurgencies are primarily driven by poor governance and socio-economic grievances rather than a global war on terror.

Politics, Political party, State, Natural ressources, Jihad, Terrorism, Education, Gold, Threat, Knowlege production

This book delves into the insecurities and violence in the Lake Chad Basin, exploring historical, social, and political dimensions. Focusing on five key countries (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Niger, Nigeria, Chad), it examines the effects of conflicts such as those driven by Boko Haram and intercommunal tensions on local societies. Through interdisciplinary studies, it highlights the diversity of insecurities, ranging from daily violence to armed conflicts, while analyzing their economic, political, and environmental causes. The book also discusses strategies to combat these insecurities, whether military, political, or development-based. It provides an in-depth understanding of local dynamics and the lived experiences of affected populations, linking these phenomena to broader global issues.

Politics, Political party, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat

The article “Self-defense groups, pyromaniac firefighters of the Sahel” by Mathieu Pellerin, published by the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) on December 14, 2022, analyzes the rise in power of self-defense groups in the Sahel since 2012. Faced with the expansion of jihadist groups and the withdrawal of states from certain rural areas, local communities have formed self-defense entities to ensure their own security. Although these groups can complement state security efforts, their lack of legal framework and coordination can worsen insecurity. Their armed intervention can intensify communal violence and further weaken state authority, leading to alternative forms of armed governance. This situation calls into question the traditional state model and the modes of local governance, where state, customary and jihadist systems intersect.

State, Governance, Jihad, Violence

In his August 2020 report titled "Disorder from Chaos: Why Europeans Fail to Promote Stability in the Sahel," Andrew Lebovich examines the reasons behind the European initiatives' struggles to establish stability in the Sahel. He highlights that, despite the creation of the Sahel Alliance in 2017 by France, Germany, and Sahelian countries, the expected outcomes have not been achieved. Lebovich identifies several contributing factors, including poorly coordinated approaches, insufficient understanding of local dynamics, and differing priorities between European and Sahelian actors. He recommends a reassessment of current strategies, emphasizing the importance of closer collaboration with local communities and adapting policies to on-the-ground realities to enhance the effectiveness of European interventions in the region.

Politics, Governance, Cooperation

The article "Armed violence in the Sahara. From jihadism to insurrections?", produced by Mathieu Pellerin and published by the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) on December 20, 2019, analyzes the evolution of jihadism in the Sahel. The author underlines that the Sahelian jihad is a combination of local and global issues, resulting from insurrectional centers rooted in old social, political and economic fractures. With the expansion of jihadist groups towards the center and south of the Sahel, the religious dimension is fading, giving way to hybrid forms of violence combining self-defense, rebellion and jihadism. Pellerin criticizes the mainly military response of States and their international partners, believing that it is inappropriate in the face of an essentially political phenomenon. It calls for a more nuanced understanding of Sahelian jihadism to develop more effective response strategies.

Jihad, Violence, Insécurité

The article titled "Persistent Conflicts, Loss of Agricultural Land, and Recurrent Food Insecurity in the Liptako-Gourma Region", authored by Eric Branckaert, Ollo Sib, Atsuvi Gamli, Souleika Abdillahi, Laure Boudinaud, Marie Ndiaye, Mariam Katile, Abdoulaye Ndiaye, Nanthilde Kamara, Federico Doehnert, Outman Badaoui, and Salvador Somda, examines the impact of armed conflicts on food security in the Liptako-Gourma region, encompassing Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Since 2014, escalating violence has led to massive population displacements, increasing from 300,000 to 864,550 individuals between March and December 2019. These displacements have disrupted agricultural activities, with many abandoning lands cultivated for generations, thereby compromising local food production. The lack of official land ownership documents complicates the return of displaced persons to their lands. In Burkina Faso, 240,000 people are severely affected by the loss of agricultural land, mainly in the Soum province. In Mali, 115,000 people are impacted, particularly in the Bandiagara, Bankass, and Koro circles. In Niger, 9,000 people are affected, especially in the Tahoua and Tillia departments. Despite these disruptions, markets for agricultural and food products have shown some resilience, although price increases have been observed in certain areas.

Conflict, Violence, Food insecurity

The article "Sovereignty means never having to apologize: the new geopolitics of the Sahel" analyzes the current geopolitical dynamics in the Sahel, focusing on the American military withdrawal from Niger. This has focused international attention on the region, highlighting the security and political challenges it faces. The author examines how notions of sovereignty are interpreted and applied by Sahelian states in this complex context. The article also explores the implications of this withdrawal for international relations and regional stability.

Sovereignty, Governance

The Covid-19 pandemic has heightened tensions between herders and farmers in the Sahel. Prior to the health crisis, fodder shortages in Mauritania, Senegal, Mali, and Niger had already weakened pastoral activities. Conflicts in areas like Liptako-Gourma (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger) and the Lake Chad Basin (Niger, Nigeria, Chad) led to the closure of livestock markets and restricted access to grazing lands. With the pandemic, border closures disrupted the return of transhumant animals, resulting in a high concentration of livestock in border areas, increasing the risks of animal diseases and conflicts with farmers. These mobility restrictions also caused meat prices to rise in urban areas and undermined pastoralists' livelihoods due to the suspension of weekly markets.

Agriculture, Pastoralism, Conflict, Food insecurity