In northwestern Nigeria, violent criminal gangs have intensified attacks since 2019, resulting in massive displacements, agricultural collapse, and record insecurity. By 2024, over 3,980 deaths were projected. With an estimated 30,000 active members, these "bandits" conduct mass kidnappings, seize farmlands and mining sites, and extort rural populations. Their actions have devastated commerce, education (168 schools closed in Zamfara), and food security, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. The Nigerian government’s fragmented response has failed to contain the violence. The authors recommend redeploying police forces, strengthening the rule of law, regulating local militias, and rebuilding trust between state and communities to reverse the region’s spiral into lawlessness.

Power, State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat

In this article published in March 2025 by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, Joseph Siegle analyzes the regional and political drivers of Sudan’s ongoing conflict. He discusses the U.S. designation of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) as perpetrators of genocide in Darfur, where civilians—mainly from the Masalit ethnic group—have suffered large-scale atrocities. The conflict, a power struggle between RSF and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), has attracted competing regional sponsors: the United Arab Emirates back RSF, while Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and others support SAF. Siegle warns of the danger of a prolonged proxy war and emphasizes the need for Sudanese civilians to be central in any negotiated settlement. He calls for all regional actors to reassess their strategic interests to prevent further fragmentation and ensure a viable political resolution.

Politics, Political party, Power, State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Conflict, Gold, Threat

Matthew La Lime’s article, published by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in November 2024, explores the rise of Black Axe, Nigeria’s most notorious transnational criminal organization. Originally a student fraternity, Black Axe has evolved into a global criminal enterprise operating in over 30 countries. Its billions in annual revenue come from cybercrime, money laundering, drug trafficking, and sex work. In Nigeria, Black Axe exerts influence over politics through patrimonial networks, protected by elites who hinder legal prosecution. While international operations like INTERPOL’s Jackal III have made arrests, domestic efforts are largely ineffective due to political interference. The article recommends legal reforms, grassroots mobilization, and enhanced international cooperation to dismantle Black Axe’s power structure and financial flows.

Politics, Political party, Power, State, Natural ressources, Political Violence, Gold, Violence, Threat, Illegal activity

The infographic titled “Africa’s Unprecedented Urbanization Is Reshaping Its Security Landscape”, published by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in May 2025, visualizes the impact of rapid urban growth on security dynamics across the continent. By 2050, Africa’s urban population is projected to reach 1.4 billion. The infographic highlights how informal urban settlements are becoming increasingly vulnerable to organized crime, militant activity, gang violence, and rising social tensions. Urban centers like Khartoum, Goma, Bamako, and Maiduguri are emerging as key hotspots of insecurity. The document calls for urban security approaches that prioritize community-based policing, social services, and inclusive governance, warning against heavy-handed or exclusionary strategies that risk further alienating marginalized populations.

Politics, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat, Urbanisation

The report “Armed Groups and the Conflict Economy in National Parks of Burkina Faso, Niger and Benin” examines the growing control of violent extremist groups (notably JNIM and ISSP) over the WAP complex (W, Arly, and Pendjari parks). These groups leverage illicit economies (smuggling, gold mining, poaching) and state absence to impose alternative governance through zakat and protection in exchange for access to natural resources. The report highlights long-standing local grievances, land disputes, weak state presence, and evolving intercommunal tensions. Armed groups use these dynamics to expand toward coastal countries. Relations between communities, park rangers, and the state are tense, often marked by abuse, mistrust, and violence. WAP thus becomes a strategic zone for consolidating armed control and illicit logistics. The report urges a coordinated response blending security, governance, and development strategies to address structural vulnerabilities.

State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Conflict, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Threat, Civil Society

Nate Allen’s article, published on May 6, 2025, by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, examines the destabilizing proliferation of military drones across Africa. Due to declining costs and technological accessibility, 31 African states and several non-state armed groups now deploy drones for intelligence, surveillance, and attacks. The analysis identifies four major trends: accelerated procurement, Turkey’s rising influence as a supplier, growing domestic production capacities, and increased usage by non-state actors. The article illustrates drones’ transformative yet limited impact in conflicts in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Libya. Despite offering tactical advantages, drones are less effective against guerrilla tactics and do not replace the need for effective ground forces. Proxy dynamics further dilute decisive outcomes. The author calls for African governments to adopt a nuanced understanding, combining counter-drone capabilities with a comprehensive operational doctrine.

Power, State, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Education, Gold, Military activity, Human security, Threat

The report “An Assessment of the Experiences and Vulnerabilities of Pastoralists and At-Risk Groups in the Atakora Department of Benin” explores the root causes of agro-pastoral conflicts and the recruitment strategies of violent extremist organizations (VEOs) in northern Benin. Conducted by Elva Community Engagement in 2022, the study reveals that land reforms, forced sedentarization, socio-political marginalization (particularly of Fulani groups), and intercommunal tensions have been exploited by groups such as JNIM and ISGS. Youth and women are especially vulnerable due to economic exclusion and restrictive social systems. The report also highlights weak local resilience mechanisms and the need for community-driven interventions. Despite rising insecurity, trust in state-led security efforts remains relatively high among local populations.

Gender, Security, Conflict, Political Violence, Education, Human security, Violence, Threat, Soicial sciences, Knowlege production

This report explores the rise, evolution, and fragmentation of armed extremist groups in the Sahel—AQIM, MUJAO, JNIM, and ISGS. It outlines the root causes of their proliferation: weak state presence, social marginalization, environmental pressures, geopolitical interference, and security vacuums. The analysis reveals how these groups adapt strategically, build local ties, and exploit state fragility. The fall of Libya, successive coups, and the withdrawal of international actors (France, the UN) have reshaped the security environment. The report advocates a multidimensional response: inclusive governance, socio-economic investment, stronger regional cooperation, and engagement of traditional leaders. It highlights the growing threat of violence spilling over into West African coastal states and calls for locally rooted, tailored strategies to achieve sustainable peace and resilience in the region.

Politics, Political party, Natural ressources, Security, Jihad, Terrorism, Political Violence, Gold, Violence, Threat

In 2024, Africa experienced unprecedented flooding across 27 countries, affecting over 11 million people, causing 2,500 deaths, and displacing 4 million. The most severely affected countries included Nigeria, Chad, Mali, Sudan, and South Sudan. These extreme events, intensified by climate change and El Niño, are becoming more frequent. The report emphasizes that governance is a key factor in vulnerability: the most affected countries are largely categorized as “not free,” with limited disaster response capacity. Poor infrastructure, weak institutional preparedness, and corruption have worsened the impact. The article calls for stronger climate resilience through improved governance, risk prevention policies, and early warning systems. It also links state fragility to environmental shocks and stresses the need for integrated solutions to address compounding humanitarian and climate-related crises.

Power, State, Governance, Natural ressources, Conflict, Education, Gold, Poverty, Threat, Civil Society