The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) paper published in June 2024 analyses the resurgence of unconstitutional changes of government (UCGs) in West Africa since 2020, particularly in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger. It highlights that these successive coups reveal structural weaknesses and complex socio-political challenges specific to each country, requiring a specific approach rather than a uniform vision of a “contagion” of coups. The paper criticises ECOWAS’s response, deemed ineffective, and calls for a reassessment of strategies for managing military transitions. It also recommends that international partners engage constructively without legitimising coups and emphasises the strengthening of regional instruments to respond to violations of democratic governance by elected governments.

Governance, Democracy, Transition, Coup d'État

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies article, published on February 21, 2019, analyzes the evolution of Islamist militant groups in the Sahel. Since 2016, violent incidents involving these groups have doubled each year, from 90 in 2016 to 465 in 2018, with a parallel increase in associated deaths, from 218 to 1,110 over the same period. Violence against civilians also increased, accounting for 34% of reported incidents in 2018. Mali remains the epicenter of this violence, accounting for 64% of incidents in 2018. This increase is attributed to increased cooperation between militant groups, particularly within the Jama'at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) coalition, formed in March 2017. Burkina Faso, previously spared, has seen a rapid escalation, with incidents increasing from 3 in 2015 to 137 in 2018. The groups generally operate in specific geographic areas, with JNIM active in central and northern Mali, Ansaroul Islam around Djibo in Burkina Faso, and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) along the Mali-Niger border.

Security, Conflict, Jihad, Violence

The article analyzes the challenges of inclusive dialogue in Mali in a context marked by persistent conflicts. Following the failure of previous peace agreements, the Malian authorities are trying to regain control of the process by initiating a national dialogue without international mediation. However, this approach is addressed for its lack of inclusiveness, in particular the absence of dialogue with the main actors of the violence, including terrorist groups such as the GSIM. Previous agreements, mediated by international actors, have failed due to a lack of will on the part of the parties. Challenges therefore include the absence of key actors, the military predominance in pacification strategies and the withdrawal of groups such as the CMA, thus complicating the effectiveness of this dialogue.

Peace, Conflict, Crisis management, Terrorism, Dialogue

The article criticizes the insistence of international actors on the rapid holding of elections in Mali, which leads to a “fetishization” of democratic forms without addressing the country’s structural problems. After the 2021 coup, the Assises nationales de la refondation attempted to identify solutions to multiple crises, but external pressures on obscure efforts. ECOWAS, by imposing sanctions and focusing on an electoral calendar, ignores the essential reforms necessary for Malian governance. The article warns of the risk of a lasting authoritarian drift and calls for innovative and adapted solutions emanating from Malians.

Governance, Election, Coup d'État

In the March 2, 2023 article, Dr. Bakary Sambe, Regional Director of the Timbuktu Institute, examines how jihadist groups in the Sahel have transformed into networked community-based actors expanding into the Gulf of Guinea . AQMI and its katibas—Macina, Serma, Alidougou—now operate through decentralized, locally rooted structures while remaining coordinated by JNIM. They exploit local dynamics—family ties, pastoral tensions, weak state presence—to establish footholds in Benin, Togo, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire. Sambe warns against relying solely on military strategies and calls for a paradigm shift that recognizes the jihadists’ community entrenchment. He advocates a mixed approach combining security measures, regional cooperation, and local dialogue to counter extremist embedding and prevent its spread into coastal regions.

Security, Conflict, Jihad, Violence

The study explores transnational and security challenges in Kédougou, a border region between Guinea, Mali and Senegal, marked by socio-economic vulnerabilities, tensions related to gold mining and cross-border trafficking. Despite mineral wealth and cultural diversity, local populations suffer from marginalization, exacerbated by a lack of infrastructure and training. The survey highlights the importance of social cohesion and resilience to counter the risks of radicalization. It recommends integrated strategies including economic development, infrastructure strengthening and community dialogue to ensure peaceful and sustainable coexistence.

Boundary, Security, Conflict, Vulnerability, Social cohesion

The article “EndSARS in Nigeria and its Lessons for Security Sector Reform in West Africa” analyzes the #EndSARS protest movement, initiated in 2017 on Twitter, which gained momentum in October 2020. This movement, mainly led by young people, denounces police violence perpetrated by the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), a unit created to fight serious crime but accused of serious abuses. The protests led to the announcement of the dissolution of SARS by the Nigerian government. The article highlights that this mobilization offers valuable lessons for security sector reform in West Africa, highlighting the importance of civic engagement and government accountability in protecting human rights.

Governance, Security, Public Administration, Military activity, Security Management, Threat, Illegal activity

The article analyzes the security challenges facing coastal countries in the face of the terrorist threat, drawing lessons from the strategic mistakes of the Sahelian states. They favored a belated military approach, underestimating the transnational and hybrid nature of terrorism. The weakness of security governance, the outbreak of community conflicts and the use of self-defense groups have aggravated the situation. Terrorist groups exploit porous borders better than states. Burkina Faso is a strategic lock whose weakening increases the pressure on coastal countries such as Benin, Togo and Ghana. For these states, it is imperative to strengthen regional cooperation and adopt inclusive strategies to avoid the same pitfalls.

Security, Terrorism