The Crisis Group article examines the conditions needed to engage in dialogue with the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM), a jihadist coalition in Mali. In the face of increasing violence and a military stalemate, dialogue is emerging as a viable option to reduce conflict. The article highlights the challenges to be overcome, including political and social resistance to negotiating with groups that are excluded as terrorists. It stresses the importance of establishing a pragmatic framework for discussions while involving local and international actors. Dialogue could help address local grievances, improve governance and restore lasting stability in Mali.

Peace, Conflict, Terrorism, Dialogue, Crisis

West Africa is facing an increasing threat of destabilization due to the expansion of jihadist groups and the geopolitical influence of foreign powers, notably Russia. Recent attacks, such as the one in Togo in July 2024 by the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM), affiliated with Al-Qaeda, highlight the extent of the terrorist threat in the region. Simultaneously, Russia is expanding its influence in Africa, capitalizing on the withdrawal or inaction of Western powers. This strategy is evident through alliances with military regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, which have recently formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a pro-Russian coalition. This situation weakens the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), already shaken by the intentions of some members to withdraw. In response to these challenges, West African authorities are seeking solutions to maintain regional stability and counter foreign interference.

Governance, Jihad, Influence, Violence, Threat

The article “Preventing Jihadists from Penetrating Northern Côte d’Ivoire” analyzes the strategies put in place by the Ivorian government to counter the infiltration of jihadist groups from the Sahel. Faced with the growing threat, the authorities have adopted an approach combining security and socio-economic initiatives. On the security front, military reforms have been undertaken to strengthen the state’s presence in vulnerable areas. At the same time, economic and social development projects aim to improve the living conditions of local populations, thereby reducing the appeal of extremist discourses. The article also highlights the importance of religious tolerance and government surveillance to maintain stability in the north of the country.

Security, Jihad, Military activity, Violence

The article "The Central Sahel, Theater of New Climate Wars?" examines the impact of climate change on conflicts in this region. It highlights that climate variations disrupt agropastoral systems, exacerbating tensions between farmers and herders. These transformations lead to accumulated competition for increasingly scarce natural resources, intensifying local conflicts. The article highlights the example of central Mali, where these dynamics have led to an escalation of violence. To alleviate these tensions, it recommends better regulation of access to natural resources and an adaptation of agricultural practices to new climatic realities.

Climate change, Natural ressources, Conflict, Violence

The Crisis Group report (No. 267, 13 December 2018) examines how drug trafficking, especially cocaine and cannabis, intensifies violence in northern Mali. It outlines a “highly competitive” criminal landscape dominated by Tuareg armed groups and jihadists vying for control of illicit trade routes . The weakened Malian state struggles to assert authority, enabling shifting alliances among traffickers, local militias, and politico-military groups. The intertwining of narcotics trafficking and political stakes further destabilizes governance and fuels insecurity. The report recommends strengthening the rule of law, combating corruption, enhancing regional coordination, and launching economic development programs to provide alternatives for local communities.

Politics, Governance, Violence, Illegal activity, Trafic de drogue

The Crisis Group article “Mali: Security, Dialogue and Deep Reform” analyses the security and political situation in Mali, stressing the need for inclusive dialogue and structural reforms to stabilise the country. It highlights the importance of strengthening security, particularly in the northern and central regions, while promoting meaningful political and institutional reforms. The article also underlines the crucial role of the international community in supporting these efforts, particularly through peacekeeping missions and development initiatives. Finally, it calls for an integrated approach that combines security measures, inclusive political dialogue and deep reforms to address the complex challenges facing Mali.

Security, Dialogue, Réforme

The Crisis Group report (No. 304, 21 September 2021) examines Mali’s transition following the August 2020 and May 2021 coups. The ousting of President IBK sparked a powerful popular demand for change, but armed violence continues. The junta, led by Assimi Goïta, seeks to meet expectations through promised elections and creation of a National Transition Council, under pressure from ECOWAS and the international community. However, institutions remain weak, electoral timelines are repeatedly postponed, and military entrenchment was solidified by a 2023 constitutional referendum that may lock in power. Crisis Group urges adherence to transition timelines, credible elections, and inclusion of civil society to avoid authoritarian backsliding and fulfill citizens’ demands for genuine change.

Governance, Election, Crisis, Transition, Coup d'État

The International Crisis Group’s article “Cameroon: Reexamining the ‘Special Status’ of the Anglophone Regions” analyses the ineffectiveness of the special status granted in 2019 to the Anglophone regions of the North-West and South-West of Cameroon in resolving the separatist crisis. This status, supposed to offer increased autonomy, was implemented unilaterally by the central government, without thorough consultation with local populations, leading to limited implementation and persistent control by Yaoundé. The article recommends reforming this special status by adopting an inclusive and consensual approach, involving local actors and civil society groups, in order to better respond to the aspirations of the Anglophone populations and foster sustainable peace.

Local Power, Governance, Security, Peace, Crisis management, Political Violence

The International Crisis Group’s “Cameroon: Prevention is Better Than Cure” article highlights the importance of dialogue between the Cameroonian government and the opposition to avoid a violent crisis before the 2018 elections. It recommends deep political and institutional reforms to address the frustrations of the Anglophone population, who feel marginalized. The article warns of the risks of instability if these concerns are not addressed, and calls for proactive action to establish peace and stability in Cameroon.

Governance, Security, Crisis management, Security Management, Vulnerability