The article “A Growing Divergence of Narratives around Security in Burkina Faso” examines the communication strategy of the military junta led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré since the September 2022 coup. While the regime portrays itself as regaining territory, fostering economic innovation, and protecting civilians, evidence points to a worsening reality: nearly 18,000 deaths linked to jihadist violence in three years, an 87% rise in civilian casualties, and loss of control over 70% of national territory. The economy has suffered from collapsing gold and cotton production and a sharp decline in foreign investment. The humanitarian crisis is escalating, with millions displaced, thousands of schools and health centers shut down, and multiple simultaneous epidemics. The article highlights the growing gap between official narratives and empirical realities, amplified by disinformation campaigns orchestrated with Russian support. This divergence poses serious challenges for governance, regional stability, and democratic principles.

Natural ressources, Security, Political Violence, Education, Gold, Human security, Influence, Violence, Threat, Information

This article examines the use of artificial intelligence techniques to predict interstate armed conflicts in West Africa. Using a comprehensive dataset spanning 1981–2018 and covering 16 countries in the region, the authors tested three machine learning models: random forest, logistic regression, and decision tree. Findings indicate that the random forest model performs best (98% accuracy, 83% recall). The most relevant predictors of conflict are differences in democracy levels and shared borders, while military expenditures prove less influential. The study highlights elevated risks for certain dyads, such as Guinea–Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast–Burkina Faso. By demonstrating the effectiveness of predictive models, this research contributes to the development of early warning systems for conflict prevention. However, it also stresses the limitations due to data imbalance and the need for continuous updates to enhance forecasting accuracy.

State, Security, Peace, Conflict, Political Violence, Education, Threat, Soicial sciences, Researh, Knowlege production, Intelligence artificielle

The Mali country profile compiles 479 references spanning governance, security, peace, education, gender, economy, and environment. On governance, it highlights the democratic backsliding in the Sahel and debates around the “fetishization” of elections, while proposing alternative forms of substantive democracy. The security section (178 references) explores the organization of jihadist groups (JNIM, AQMI), their identity dynamics (notably among the Fulani), resource bases (gold mining, drug trafficking), and counter-responses (local militias, Wagner). Peace and mediation studies emphasize intercommunal dialogue, inclusivity, and the role of civil society and women. Education and youth analyses discuss girls’ access to schooling, gender-based violence, and youth employment. Economic studies examine debt sustainability, the implications of ECOWAS withdrawal, and women’s entrepreneurship. Environmental and pastoralist issues are presented as direct sources of conflict—“polycrises” linking climate change, resource competition, and insecurity. Overall, the report reflects the complexity of Mali’s crises and their regional dimensions

Politics, Political party, Natural ressources, Security, Jihad, Political Violence, Education, Gold, Human security, Threat

This country profile compiles 346 references on Burkina Faso, covering governance, security, peacebuilding, education, economy, and environment. Studies highlight the fragility of democracy, the role of traditional chieftaincies, and the reconfiguration of relations with ECOWAS, France, and Turkey. The security section (136 references) provides a detailed overview of the economy of armed groups, gold mining, arms proliferation, and the role of local militias (VDP). Human impacts are underlined, including violence against women and youth recruitment into armed groups. Peacebuilding and humanitarian analyses stress the need for local approaches and alternatives beyond military action. Thematic entries on youth, gender, health, and employment point both to vulnerabilities and resilience strategies. Environmental issues, especially pastoralism, are described as “polycrises,” illustrating the interconnections between security, climate, and agricultural crises in the Sahel. Overall, the report emphasizes the interplay of local dynamics with regional and global geopolitical shifts

Politics, Political party, Natural ressources, Security, Jihad, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat

Over the past decade, more than 155,000 deaths have been attributed to militant Islamist groups in Africa. The **Sahel—especially Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—**has become the epicenter of this violence, with attacks surging since 2020. JNIM (linked to al-Qaeda) and ISGS (Islamic State in the Greater Sahara) dominate the region, expanding toward coastal West Africa. Burkina Faso accounts for more than half of recent fatalities, while Mali has suffered over 17,000 deaths since 2020. Niger, destabilized by the 2023 coup, has seen casualties quadruple. Somalia, with al-Shabaab, and the Lake Chad Basin (Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Niger) also remain deadly hotspots. The report highlights states’ territorial loss, with nearly 1 million km² outside government control, and forced displacement affecting over 3.5 million people. The data underscores the escalating lethality of militant Islamist groups and the urgent need for coordinated responses.

State, Natural ressources, Security, Peace, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat, Civil Society

This report investigates mental health challenges in crisis-affected contexts in Mali, Mauritania, and Chad. It highlights the impact of violence, poverty, gender inequalities, and forced displacement on mental well-being. The study explores the history of psychiatry, public policies, key actors, and presents field research in each country. Findings reveal a high prevalence of mental disorders (depression, psychosis, PTSD), a severe lack of infrastructure and trained personnel, and a weak integration between traditional and modern care. The report recommends strengthening national mental health systems, combating stigma, supporting community-based care, and aligning humanitarian interventions with local culture and psychosocial needs as part of resilience-building strategies.

Migration, Gender, Political Violence, Education, Violence, Customs, Threat, refugee, Researh, Knowlege production, Santé mentale

The article, published by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies on February 3, 2024, assesses the failure of Mali's promised democratic transition under the military junta that seized power in August 2020. The junta has repeatedly postponed elections and adopted a new constitution that consolidates power in the hands of Colonel Assimi Goïta. Security and economic conditions have worsened, with Islamist violence surging and poverty increasing. The withdrawal from ECOWAS, the G5 Sahel, and MINUSMA has left Mali isolated. Freedoms have shrunk, justice has been obstructed, and Russian mercenaries — implicated in serious human rights abuses — have been brought in. The article argues that the junta has broken its commitments to both citizens and international partners, rendering the concept of a “transition” meaningless.

State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Political Violence, Election, Gold, Poverty, Human security, Threat, Politique publique, Transition, Services publics

The study “Integrating Mental Health into Crisis Contexts in the Sahel/West Africa” examines the effects of security and humanitarian crises on mental health in Mali, Mauritania, and Chad. It highlights a high prevalence of psychosocial disorders—such as anxiety, PTSD, and depression—driven by armed violence, forced displacement, service breakdowns, and social isolation. Access to care remains limited due to a shortage of qualified personnel, lack of financial resources, and persistent stigma. The report calls for mainstreaming mental health into humanitarian responses and public policies, strengthening community-based support, and producing disaggregated data that is gender- and age-sensitive.

Gender, Natural ressources, Political Violence, Education, Family, Gold, Social, Health, Violence, Threat, Crisis, Santé mentale

This Policy Brief by Sten Hagberg examines the effects of population displacement on the rapid urbanisation of secondary cities in the Sahel, focusing on Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. It discusses the strain on public services, the growth of informal settlements, shifting family and gender dynamics, and the securitisation and mistrust targeting displaced populations. Displaced persons mostly seek refuge in under-resourced regional cities. The Brief highlights political tensions around official displacement categories and promotes analysis through “practical norms” — real-life social and urban governance practices. It concludes with a call for more qualitative research to better understand these urban dynamics and support displaced populations.

Gender, Security, Political Violence, Education, Human security, Violence, Threat, Urbanisation, Soicial sciences, Knowlege production