The report demonstrates a sharp deterioration of Mali’s security situation since the military junta seized power in 2020. Violence by militant Islamist groups has surged and now covers every region, including areas close to Bamako. Maps throughout the report (pp. 1–4) show the rapid geographic expansion of attacks. In 2023, Mali is on track to exceed 1,000 violent events, nearly triple the level recorded when the junta took power. Focused on consolidating its rule, the junta alienated regional and international security partners and demanded the withdrawal of the 15,000-strong UN mission (MINUSMA), pushing northern Mali to the brink of renewed civil war. The arrival of Russia-linked Wagner forces has worsened abuses, with more than 320 human rights violations documented. In the center and south, FLM, JNIM, and ISGS have strengthened their operations. State authority is collapsing as civilians face escalating attacks, instability, and governance breakdown.

Political party, State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat

Africa is experiencing a historic surge in forced displacement, with 45.7 million people uprooted, representing 3% of the continent’s population . Conflict is the main driver, as 96% of displaced populations originate from countries affected by armed violence. Sudan has become the epicenter, recording 14.4 million forcibly displaced people, including 10 million internally displaced—the highest figure worldwide. Regional conflicts increasingly overlap: 8 of the 11 African countries hosting the most refugees are themselves in conflict, highlighting the interconnected crises of the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and the Lake Chad Basin. Burkina Faso accounts for one of the largest internal displacement crises. Some fragile improvements appear in Ethiopia and the DRC due to returns in partially stabilized regions. Meanwhile, natural disasters—mainly floods—have increased forced displacement by 33%, adding 5.6 million new victims and compounding the vulnerability of populations already affected by conflict.

Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat, Civil Society, Crisis, Déplacement forcé

The article examines the expansion of Jama’at Nasrat al Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) into western and southern Mali, marked by seven coordinated attacks launched by the Macina Liberation Front (FLM) on July 1, 2025. These operations targeted Kayes and Nioro du Sahel—two strategic economic and religious hubs—opening a new front far from the group’s traditional strongholds in central and northern Mali. JNIM’s strategy aims to isolate Bamako by attacking key trade routes, fuel convoys, and industrial sites, causing shortages, rising prices, and severe disruption of commercial activity. Despite strengthened military checkpoints, ambushes continue, resulting in kidnappings, destroyed tankers, and population displacement toward Senegal and Mauritania. The FLM’s growing reach, combined with the junta’s increasing political repression and its break with international security partners, deepens Mali’s fragmentation and heightens risks for neighboring coastal states.

Politics, Political party, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat

The article examines the evolution of assisted deliveries in community health centres (CsCOM) in the Malian districts of Mopti and Bandiagara amid rising insecurity. Using a mixed-methods design combining spatial analyses, health centre performance indicators, and qualitative interviews, the study highlights strong territorial disparities. While most communes show declining or stagnant assisted delivery rates, some centres located near areas of violence experience increasing numbers. This paradox is explained by large-scale population displacement toward perceived safer areas hosting better-performing health centres, often supported by NGOs providing free maternal care and awareness campaigns. Conversely, remote centres show reduced utilisation due to the departure of qualified staff, reduced household income, and fear of travelling during insecurity. The findings demonstrate that conflict does not affect all services or territories equally and emphasise the need for fine-scale analyses to accurately assess how insecurity shapes maternal healthcare utilisation.

Security, Conflict, Political Violence, Education, Human security, Threat, Soicial sciences, Researh, Knowlege production, EMPLOYMENT

The article Managing Election Violence and Sustaining Peace and Security in West Africa, authored by Professor Charles Ukeje and Dr. Wale Olusola, explores the persistent issue of electoral violence and its impact on peace and democratic consolidation in West Africa. Published in November 2023 by the Building Blocks for Peace Foundation (BBFORPEACE) and GPPAC West Africa, the paper argues that elections—meant to strengthen democracy—often fuel insecurity. It highlights both structural (poverty, unemployment, exclusion) and immediate (hate speech, manipulation, external influence) causes of electoral violence. The authors recommend returning to civilian rule, promoting peace education, reforming political parties, and enhancing collaboration among ECOWAS, civil society, and development partners. The report underscores that inclusive and peaceful elections are essential to sustaining regional stability and democratic governance.

Gender, Security, Peace, Justice, Conflict, Political Violence, Election, Human security, Violence, Threat

The article examines the constitutional referendum held in Guinea on September 21, 2025, by Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya’s junta. While presented as a step toward democracy, the process primarily aims to entrench military power. The draft constitution allows junta members to run for elections, extends the presidential term from five to seven years, and grants the executive significant control over Parliament and electoral management. Opposition parties and civil society are sidelined through suspensions, arrests, and enforced disappearances, while media freedoms are heavily curtailed. Despite Afrobarometer surveys showing strong popular support for democracy and civilian rule, the climate of fear, institutional manipulation, and lack of transparency prevent fair contestation. The article stresses that the referendum continues Guinea’s long history of military and authoritarian governance and warns that it could profoundly affect the country’s political and economic stability in the years to come.

Politics, Political party, Power, State, Natural ressources, Political Violence, Democracy, Election, Gold, Threat, Transition

The article “A Growing Divergence of Narratives around Security in Burkina Faso” examines the communication strategy of the military junta led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré since the September 2022 coup. While the regime portrays itself as regaining territory, fostering economic innovation, and protecting civilians, evidence points to a worsening reality: nearly 18,000 deaths linked to jihadist violence in three years, an 87% rise in civilian casualties, and loss of control over 70% of national territory. The economy has suffered from collapsing gold and cotton production and a sharp decline in foreign investment. The humanitarian crisis is escalating, with millions displaced, thousands of schools and health centers shut down, and multiple simultaneous epidemics. The article highlights the growing gap between official narratives and empirical realities, amplified by disinformation campaigns orchestrated with Russian support. This divergence poses serious challenges for governance, regional stability, and democratic principles.

Natural ressources, Security, Political Violence, Education, Gold, Human security, Influence, Violence, Threat, Information

This article examines the use of artificial intelligence techniques to predict interstate armed conflicts in West Africa. Using a comprehensive dataset spanning 1981–2018 and covering 16 countries in the region, the authors tested three machine learning models: random forest, logistic regression, and decision tree. Findings indicate that the random forest model performs best (98% accuracy, 83% recall). The most relevant predictors of conflict are differences in democracy levels and shared borders, while military expenditures prove less influential. The study highlights elevated risks for certain dyads, such as Guinea–Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast–Burkina Faso. By demonstrating the effectiveness of predictive models, this research contributes to the development of early warning systems for conflict prevention. However, it also stresses the limitations due to data imbalance and the need for continuous updates to enhance forecasting accuracy.

State, Security, Peace, Conflict, Political Violence, Education, Threat, Soicial sciences, Researh, Knowlege production, Intelligence artificielle

The Mali country profile compiles 479 references spanning governance, security, peace, education, gender, economy, and environment. On governance, it highlights the democratic backsliding in the Sahel and debates around the “fetishization” of elections, while proposing alternative forms of substantive democracy. The security section (178 references) explores the organization of jihadist groups (JNIM, AQMI), their identity dynamics (notably among the Fulani), resource bases (gold mining, drug trafficking), and counter-responses (local militias, Wagner). Peace and mediation studies emphasize intercommunal dialogue, inclusivity, and the role of civil society and women. Education and youth analyses discuss girls’ access to schooling, gender-based violence, and youth employment. Economic studies examine debt sustainability, the implications of ECOWAS withdrawal, and women’s entrepreneurship. Environmental and pastoralist issues are presented as direct sources of conflict—“polycrises” linking climate change, resource competition, and insecurity. Overall, the report reflects the complexity of Mali’s crises and their regional dimensions

Politics, Political party, Natural ressources, Security, Jihad, Political Violence, Education, Gold, Human security, Threat