The article, published by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies on February 3, 2024, assesses the failure of Mali's promised democratic transition under the military junta that seized power in August 2020. The junta has repeatedly postponed elections and adopted a new constitution that consolidates power in the hands of Colonel Assimi Goïta. Security and economic conditions have worsened, with Islamist violence surging and poverty increasing. The withdrawal from ECOWAS, the G5 Sahel, and MINUSMA has left Mali isolated. Freedoms have shrunk, justice has been obstructed, and Russian mercenaries — implicated in serious human rights abuses — have been brought in. The article argues that the junta has broken its commitments to both citizens and international partners, rendering the concept of a “transition” meaningless.

State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Political Violence, Election, Gold, Poverty, Human security, Threat, Politique publique, Transition, Services publics

The study “Integrating Mental Health into Crisis Contexts in the Sahel/West Africa” examines the effects of security and humanitarian crises on mental health in Mali, Mauritania, and Chad. It highlights a high prevalence of psychosocial disorders—such as anxiety, PTSD, and depression—driven by armed violence, forced displacement, service breakdowns, and social isolation. Access to care remains limited due to a shortage of qualified personnel, lack of financial resources, and persistent stigma. The report calls for mainstreaming mental health into humanitarian responses and public policies, strengthening community-based support, and producing disaggregated data that is gender- and age-sensitive.

Gender, Natural ressources, Political Violence, Education, Family, Gold, Social, Health, Violence, Threat, Crisis, Santé mentale

This Policy Brief by Sten Hagberg examines the effects of population displacement on the rapid urbanisation of secondary cities in the Sahel, focusing on Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. It discusses the strain on public services, the growth of informal settlements, shifting family and gender dynamics, and the securitisation and mistrust targeting displaced populations. Displaced persons mostly seek refuge in under-resourced regional cities. The Brief highlights political tensions around official displacement categories and promotes analysis through “practical norms” — real-life social and urban governance practices. It concludes with a call for more qualitative research to better understand these urban dynamics and support displaced populations.

Gender, Security, Political Violence, Education, Human security, Violence, Threat, Urbanisation, Soicial sciences, Knowlege production

In northwestern Nigeria, violent criminal gangs have intensified attacks since 2019, resulting in massive displacements, agricultural collapse, and record insecurity. By 2024, over 3,980 deaths were projected. With an estimated 30,000 active members, these "bandits" conduct mass kidnappings, seize farmlands and mining sites, and extort rural populations. Their actions have devastated commerce, education (168 schools closed in Zamfara), and food security, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. The Nigerian government’s fragmented response has failed to contain the violence. The authors recommend redeploying police forces, strengthening the rule of law, regulating local militias, and rebuilding trust between state and communities to reverse the region’s spiral into lawlessness.

Power, State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat

Matthew La Lime’s article, published by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in November 2024, explores the rise of Black Axe, Nigeria’s most notorious transnational criminal organization. Originally a student fraternity, Black Axe has evolved into a global criminal enterprise operating in over 30 countries. Its billions in annual revenue come from cybercrime, money laundering, drug trafficking, and sex work. In Nigeria, Black Axe exerts influence over politics through patrimonial networks, protected by elites who hinder legal prosecution. While international operations like INTERPOL’s Jackal III have made arrests, domestic efforts are largely ineffective due to political interference. The article recommends legal reforms, grassroots mobilization, and enhanced international cooperation to dismantle Black Axe’s power structure and financial flows.

Politics, Political party, Power, State, Natural ressources, Political Violence, Gold, Violence, Threat, Illegal activity

The infographic titled “Africa’s Unprecedented Urbanization Is Reshaping Its Security Landscape”, published by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in May 2025, visualizes the impact of rapid urban growth on security dynamics across the continent. By 2050, Africa’s urban population is projected to reach 1.4 billion. The infographic highlights how informal urban settlements are becoming increasingly vulnerable to organized crime, militant activity, gang violence, and rising social tensions. Urban centers like Khartoum, Goma, Bamako, and Maiduguri are emerging as key hotspots of insecurity. The document calls for urban security approaches that prioritize community-based policing, social services, and inclusive governance, warning against heavy-handed or exclusionary strategies that risk further alienating marginalized populations.

Politics, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Violence, Threat, Urbanisation

The report “Armed Groups and the Conflict Economy in National Parks of Burkina Faso, Niger and Benin” examines the growing control of violent extremist groups (notably JNIM and ISSP) over the WAP complex (W, Arly, and Pendjari parks). These groups leverage illicit economies (smuggling, gold mining, poaching) and state absence to impose alternative governance through zakat and protection in exchange for access to natural resources. The report highlights long-standing local grievances, land disputes, weak state presence, and evolving intercommunal tensions. Armed groups use these dynamics to expand toward coastal countries. Relations between communities, park rangers, and the state are tense, often marked by abuse, mistrust, and violence. WAP thus becomes a strategic zone for consolidating armed control and illicit logistics. The report urges a coordinated response blending security, governance, and development strategies to address structural vulnerabilities.

State, Natural ressources, Security, Justice, Conflict, Political Violence, Gold, Human security, Threat, Civil Society

The report “An Assessment of the Experiences and Vulnerabilities of Pastoralists and At-Risk Groups in the Atakora Department of Benin” explores the root causes of agro-pastoral conflicts and the recruitment strategies of violent extremist organizations (VEOs) in northern Benin. Conducted by Elva Community Engagement in 2022, the study reveals that land reforms, forced sedentarization, socio-political marginalization (particularly of Fulani groups), and intercommunal tensions have been exploited by groups such as JNIM and ISGS. Youth and women are especially vulnerable due to economic exclusion and restrictive social systems. The report also highlights weak local resilience mechanisms and the need for community-driven interventions. Despite rising insecurity, trust in state-led security efforts remains relatively high among local populations.

Gender, Security, Conflict, Political Violence, Education, Human security, Violence, Threat, Soicial sciences, Knowlege production

This report explores the rise, evolution, and fragmentation of armed extremist groups in the Sahel—AQIM, MUJAO, JNIM, and ISGS. It outlines the root causes of their proliferation: weak state presence, social marginalization, environmental pressures, geopolitical interference, and security vacuums. The analysis reveals how these groups adapt strategically, build local ties, and exploit state fragility. The fall of Libya, successive coups, and the withdrawal of international actors (France, the UN) have reshaped the security environment. The report advocates a multidimensional response: inclusive governance, socio-economic investment, stronger regional cooperation, and engagement of traditional leaders. It highlights the growing threat of violence spilling over into West African coastal states and calls for locally rooted, tailored strategies to achieve sustainable peace and resilience in the region.

Politics, Political party, Natural ressources, Security, Jihad, Terrorism, Political Violence, Gold, Violence, Threat