Other documents that may interest you :

• Journal article / Governance, Security and human rights,

  Prediction of Interstate Armed Conflicts in West Africa Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques 03/09/2025

  Summary :

  This article examines the use of artificial intelligence techniques to predict interstate armed conflicts in West Africa. Using a comprehensive datase...

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  Country : Burkina Faso , Gambia , Mali , Mauritania , Niger , Nigeria , Senegal , Benin , Ivory Coste , Togo , Guinea , Ghana , Liberia , Guinea-Bissau , Sierra Leone , Cape Verde

  Organizations : International Journal of Advanced Research (IJAR)
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Journal article / Governance, Security and human rights,
Prediction of Interstate Armed Conflicts in West Africa Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques 03/09/2025
Summary :
This article examines the use of artificial intelligence techniques to predict interstate armed conflicts in West Africa. Using a comprehensive dataset spanning 1981–2018 and covering 16 countries in the region, the authors tested three machine learning models: random forest, logistic regression, and decision tree. Findings indicate that the random forest model performs best (98% accuracy, 83% recall). The most relevant predictors of conflict are differences in democracy levels and shared borders, while military expenditures prove less influential. The study highlights elevated risks for certain dyads, such as Guinea–Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast–Burkina Faso. By demonstrating the effectiveness of predictive models, this research contributes to the development of early warning systems for conflict prevention. However, it also stresses the limitations due to data imbalance and the need for continuous updates to enhance forecasting accuracy.
Keywords :
State, Security, Peace, Conflict, Political Violence, Education, Threat, Soicial sciences, Researh, Knowlege production, Intelligence artificielle
Organizations :
International Journal of Advanced Research (IJAR)
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• NGO / Association report / Security and human rights,

  Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin of Senegal, No. 41 – June–July 2025 01/09/2025

  Summary :

  The Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin for Senegal (No. 41, June–July 2025) highlights late and irregular rains, causing a severe pastoral lean season in ...

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  Country : Mali , Mauritania , Senegal

  Organizations : Action Against Hunger (ACF) – Regional Office for West and Central Africa (Dakar, Senegal)
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NGO / Association report / Security and human rights,
Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin of Senegal, No. 41 – June–July 2025 01/09/2025
Summary :
The Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin for Senegal (No. 41, June–July 2025) highlights late and irregular rains, causing a severe pastoral lean season in the north (Louga, Saint-Louis, Matam). Transhumance flows were intense, with herds moving southward (Kaolack, Kaffrine, Tambacounda) and across borders with Mauritania and Mali. While forage and water resources were more favorable in Casamance and eastern Senegal, overgrazing and pressure on water points increased health risks and tensions. Livestock prices, especially for male cattle (+12%), rose sharply, improving terms of trade for pastoralists but undermining non-herding households’ purchasing power. The bulletin also reports animal diseases, frequent cattle thefts (Louga, Kaffrine, Tambacounda), and localized farmer–herder conflicts. Recommendations emphasize strengthening pastoral infrastructure, ensuring coordinated management of transhumance corridors, reinforcing animal health surveillance, and providing targeted support to vulnerable households.
Keywords :
State, Livestock, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Education, Food security, Gold, Poverty, Human security, Vulnerability, Transhumance
Organizations :
Action Against Hunger (ACF) – Regional Office for West and Central Africa (Dakar, Senegal)
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• NGO / Association report / Security and human rights,

  Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin on Mali – No. 35, June-July 2025 25/08/2025

  Summary :

  The Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin on Mali (No. 35, June-July 2025), published by Action Against Hunger, reports on pastoral resources and market dyna...

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  Country : Mali

  Organizations : Action Against Hunger (ACF) – Regional Office for West and Central Africa (Dakar, Senegal)
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NGO / Association report / Security and human rights,
Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin on Mali – No. 35, June-July 2025 25/08/2025
Summary :
The Pastoral Surveillance Bulletin on Mali (No. 35, June-July 2025), published by Action Against Hunger, reports on pastoral resources and market dynamics in the regions of Timbuktu and Gao. Seasonal rains contributed to pasture regeneration and improved water availability, though access remains uneven and new shoots are often underutilized. Livestock body condition is mostly rated as fair, with suspected outbreaks of diseases such as peste des petits ruminants, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, and lumpy skin disease. Cattle theft was reported in 50% of monitoring sites, while insecurity remains high, especially in Gao. Markets are accessible, but terms of trade are still unfavorable to herders, despite a slight improvement (+14% increase in goat-to-millet exchange value). The report highlights the need for pasture rotation, stronger community veterinary networks, enhanced disease prevention, and improved conflict management.
Keywords :
Power, State, Livestock, Natural ressources, Security, Conflict, Education, Gold, Human security, Marché
Organizations :
Action Against Hunger (ACF) – Regional Office for West and Central Africa (Dakar, Senegal)
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• Academic analysis and Think Tank / Governance,

  Seven Things to Know About the Constitutional Referendum in Guinea 22/09/2025

  Summary :

  The article examines the constitutional referendum held in Guinea on September 21, 2025, by Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya’s junta. While presented as a ste...

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  Country : Guinea

  Organizations : Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS)
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Academic analysis and Think Tank / Governance,
Seven Things to Know About the Constitutional Referendum in Guinea 22/09/2025
Summary :
The article examines the constitutional referendum held in Guinea on September 21, 2025, by Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya’s junta. While presented as a step toward democracy, the process primarily aims to entrench military power. The draft constitution allows junta members to run for elections, extends the presidential term from five to seven years, and grants the executive significant control over Parliament and electoral management. Opposition parties and civil society are sidelined through suspensions, arrests, and enforced disappearances, while media freedoms are heavily curtailed. Despite Afrobarometer surveys showing strong popular support for democracy and civilian rule, the climate of fear, institutional manipulation, and lack of transparency prevent fair contestation. The article stresses that the referendum continues Guinea’s long history of military and authoritarian governance and warns that it could profoundly affect the country’s political and economic stability in the years to come.
Keywords :
Politics, Political party, Power, State, Natural ressources, Political Violence, Democracy, Election, Gold, Threat, Transition
Organizations :
Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS)
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